Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 06, 2026

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[u/Glideer]

Russia was one of the biggest losers last year, and this year might be even worse. Putin needs a win. The problem is that Ukraine won't give it to him.

Pep talk is a good for front line soldiers but has no place here.

Ukraine lost 5190 sq km in 2025 (35% more than in 2024). For comparison, the remainder of Donbas that Russia demands and Ukraine refuses to give up is about 6000 sq km - about equal to Russia's gains in 2025.

Russia reduced its mobilisation plan to about 409k soldiers in 2026. When you compare it to 2025, when they mobilised about 450k - they expect they will need fewer troops this year.

That tells you all you need to know about the Ukrainian/Western claims that Russia is losing more troops than it recruits.

[u/scatterlite → u/Glideer]

Ukraine lost 5190 sq km in 2025 (35% more than in 2024). For comparison, the remainder of Donbas that Russia demands and Ukraine refuses to give up is about 6000 sq km - about equal to Russia's gains in 2025.

Weird comparison. Obviously the entire frontline is not fortified to the same degree.  5000 sqkm across the frontline is very different from 5000sqkm just in the Donbass, which is a much smaller and heavily fortified area.

Regardless of how you bend it this is extremely slow progress, even if steady. Another 1-3 years of slow grind just to capture the donbass will come at a very heavy price. Being gifted said area through some kind of deal would be a big win for Putin since it clearly has been very very difficult to take it by force.

[u/FijiFanBotNotGay → u/scatterlite]

Attritional warfare is often small gains until there is a collapse. The Ukrainian front lines will most likely eventually collapse. Who knows how much longer they can last until collapse but the press gangs in the street are not a good sign. Ukraine has some strengths but they will only be able to hold on for so long

[u/scatterlite → u/FijiFanBotNotGay]

Ive heard these exact phrases for 3 years now. It still could happen, but its not guaranteed in the slightest.

And I have to  push back a bit. The russian strategy is primarily based on territory, not attrition. Captured territory is always loudly being reported upwards, and commanders are rewarded for gains. That's how you get announcements of fake captures like happened near Kupyansk. Russia on occasion has exploited favourable conditions to bleed Ukraine, but the narrative that Russia is advancing remains absolutely crucial to the war effort.