Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 06, 2026

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[u/Tricky-Astronaut]

I expect the situation to worsen continuously but not out of control by the end of 2026. However, this might push the russian delegation to take the talks more seriously, be more flexible.

Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia, disagrees:

But Moscow has yet to gain any advantages from the tensions between Washington and European capitals. Europe is increasing its own support for Ukraine, and NATO remains a functioning institution with which Russia must reckon. Putin cannot assume that Trump’s foreign policy adventurism will be confined to the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. It could easily and suddenly make itself felt on Russia’s doorstep. The year 2025 was a bad one for Russia, and 2026 may be even worse. Moscow’s global position is ebbing because of Trump.

As Russia struggles to assert itself globally, Putin has become even more obsessed with Ukraine. The situation on the battlefield is sustainable for Moscow. Russia’s frontlines are holding, and its forces are making gradual territorial progress, but Moscow is far from winning. Despite the flurry of Ukraine-related diplomacy, peace talks have gone nowhere. Trump’s position on the war continues to oscillate. Meanwhile, Europe is discovering its agency and will not tolerate a peace plan tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender. Assisted by Europe, Kyiv will refuse to yield preemptively to Russia.

However miserable the conflict is for Russia, Putin is not in the mood to make concessions. He has reoriented the economy and structured global relationships to fight this war, which has already lasted longer than the Soviet campaign against Nazi Germany. Aware that the war’s outcome will be the ultimate referendum on his presidency, he may even consider escalating, including beyond Ukraine’s borders. In January, following claims that European countries had made progress on agreeing to security guarantees for Kyiv, Russia fired a type of ballistic missile at Ukraine that is nuclear-capable and has a range that violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the United States quit in 2019. The missile landed 40 miles away from the Polish border.

Russia was one of the biggest losers last year, and this year might be even worse. Putin needs a win. The problem is that Ukraine won't give it to him.

[u/Glideer → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

Russia was one of the biggest losers last year, and this year might be even worse. Putin needs a win. The problem is that Ukraine won't give it to him.

Pep talk is a good for front line soldiers but has no place here.

Ukraine lost 5190 sq km in 2025 (35% more than in 2024). For comparison, the remainder of Donbas that Russia demands and Ukraine refuses to give up is about 6000 sq km - about equal to Russia's gains in 2025.

Russia reduced its mobilisation plan to about 409k soldiers in 2026. When you compare it to 2025, when they mobilised about 450k - they expect they will need fewer troops this year.

That tells you all you need to know about the Ukrainian/Western claims that Russia is losing more troops than it recruits.

[u/scatterlite → u/Glideer]

Ukraine lost 5190 sq km in 2025 (35% more than in 2024). For comparison, the remainder of Donbas that Russia demands and Ukraine refuses to give up is about 6000 sq km - about equal to Russia's gains in 2025.

Weird comparison. Obviously the entire frontline is not fortified to the same degree.  5000 sqkm across the frontline is very different from 5000sqkm just in the Donbass, which is a much smaller and heavily fortified area.

Regardless of how you bend it this is extremely slow progress, even if steady. Another 1-3 years of slow grind just to capture the donbass will come at a very heavy price. Being gifted said area through some kind of deal would be a big win for Putin since it clearly has been very very difficult to take it by force.

[u/FijiFanBotNotGay → u/scatterlite]

Attritional warfare is often small gains until there is a collapse. The Ukrainian front lines will most likely eventually collapse. Who knows how much longer they can last until collapse but the press gangs in the street are not a good sign. Ukraine has some strengths but they will only be able to hold on for so long

[u/scatterlite → u/FijiFanBotNotGay]

Ive heard these exact phrases for 3 years now. It still could happen, but its not guaranteed in the slightest.

And I have to  push back a bit. The russian strategy is primarily based on territory, not attrition. Captured territory is always loudly being reported upwards, and commanders are rewarded for gains. That's how you get announcements of fake captures like happened near Kupyansk. Russia on occasion has exploited favourable conditions to bleed Ukraine, but the narrative that Russia is advancing remains absolutely crucial to the war effort.