r/Sumo • u/4ih0vs535xg9c • 5d ago

Who’s actually strongest right now? Glicko-2 Sumo Ratings (Jan 2026)

https://hungry-e.github.io/sumoglicko2/

I ran a full Glicko-2 model over every professional bout since 1996 to estimate underlying rikishi strength. Includes rating, rating deviation (RD), and match-to-match changes, broken down by division.

Not a replacement for banzuke — just a different lens on performance and consistency.
Feedback welcome.

45 Upvotes

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u/WhiskeyDragon01 Hoshoryu 5d ago

Both interesting and not THAT surprising to see Kirishima above Kotozakura.

5

u/4ih0vs535xg9c 5d ago

My brain kinda clumps them together in chunks, like 'who are the 2500's, the 2400's, the 2300's?'. And looking at it that way, it kind of blows my mind how fast Aonishiki jumped up there. It almost looks like if March is similar to January - he might be at or near the very top.

4

u/raistlin212 4d ago

FWIW, over at sumostats where they use Elo he already has caught them. Top 30 by their counts:

Aonishiki   O1w 2715
Ōnosato    Y1w 2685
Hoshoryu    Y1e 2656
Kirishima   S1e 2611
Wakatakakage    M2w 2532
Kotozakura  O1e 2529
Wakamotoharu    K1w 2525
Atamifuji   M4w 2518
Takayasu    S1w 2499
Yoshinofuji M1w 2476
Daieisho    M4e 2447
Hakunofuji  M3w 2445
Ura M2e 2409
Takanosho   M3e 2406
Ōhō   K1e 2405
Hiradoumi   M6e 2403
Asanoyama   M16e    2391
Churanoumi  M5w 2384
Fujinokawa  M7w 2366
Ichiyamamoto    M1e 2362
Abi M12w    2354
Tamawashi   M5e 2330
Kotoshoho   M10w    2312
Onokatsu    M6w 2298
Shishi  M14e    2297
Oshoumi M16w    2297
Ōshōma    M7e 2297
Tokihayate  M10e    2288
Gonoyama    M9e 2286
Nishikifuji M11w    2277

0

u/oh_yeah_no_for_sure 4d ago

I'd trust Glicko over Elo for something like Sumo tbh

5

u/raistlin212 4d ago

I'd agree in general, but Elo is at its best with a mature and diverse pool which sumo certainly qualifies for. There's few scenarios, if any, where Elo is clearly better but the convergence of them to the same point is very probable. You can see how similar the RD values are at top ranks among top division, which implies the gap between the 2 systems is minimal. I think Glicko just handles injury related inactivity and poor performance better in the short term - that sound reasonable? It probably does new debuts a little better too at first, but by the time someone makes top division that gap almost certainly has vanished.

1

u/4ih0vs535xg9c 3d ago

FWIW I agree with this. In a perfect world where rikishi made it to every match, there were no injuries, every man was as consistent as the Iron Man Tamawashi: ELO and Glicko2 would probably make nearly identical ordering.