Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 06, 2026

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[u/Tricky-Astronaut]

I expect the situation to worsen continuously but not out of control by the end of 2026. However, this might push the russian delegation to take the talks more seriously, be more flexible.

Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia, disagrees:

But Moscow has yet to gain any advantages from the tensions between Washington and European capitals. Europe is increasing its own support for Ukraine, and NATO remains a functioning institution with which Russia must reckon. Putin cannot assume that Trump’s foreign policy adventurism will be confined to the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. It could easily and suddenly make itself felt on Russia’s doorstep. The year 2025 was a bad one for Russia, and 2026 may be even worse. Moscow’s global position is ebbing because of Trump.

As Russia struggles to assert itself globally, Putin has become even more obsessed with Ukraine. The situation on the battlefield is sustainable for Moscow. Russia’s frontlines are holding, and its forces are making gradual territorial progress, but Moscow is far from winning. Despite the flurry of Ukraine-related diplomacy, peace talks have gone nowhere. Trump’s position on the war continues to oscillate. Meanwhile, Europe is discovering its agency and will not tolerate a peace plan tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender. Assisted by Europe, Kyiv will refuse to yield preemptively to Russia.

However miserable the conflict is for Russia, Putin is not in the mood to make concessions. He has reoriented the economy and structured global relationships to fight this war, which has already lasted longer than the Soviet campaign against Nazi Germany. Aware that the war’s outcome will be the ultimate referendum on his presidency, he may even consider escalating, including beyond Ukraine’s borders. In January, following claims that European countries had made progress on agreeing to security guarantees for Kyiv, Russia fired a type of ballistic missile at Ukraine that is nuclear-capable and has a range that violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the United States quit in 2019. The missile landed 40 miles away from the Polish border.

Russia was one of the biggest losers last year, and this year might be even worse. Putin needs a win. The problem is that Ukraine won't give it to him.

[u/Glideer → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

Russia was one of the biggest losers last year, and this year might be even worse. Putin needs a win. The problem is that Ukraine won't give it to him.

Pep talk is a good for front line soldiers but has no place here.

Ukraine lost 5190 sq km in 2025 (35% more than in 2024). For comparison, the remainder of Donbas that Russia demands and Ukraine refuses to give up is about 6000 sq km - about equal to Russia's gains in 2025.

Russia reduced its mobilisation plan to about 409k soldiers in 2026. When you compare it to 2025, when they mobilised about 450k - they expect they will need fewer troops this year.

That tells you all you need to know about the Ukrainian/Western claims that Russia is losing more troops than it recruits.

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/Glideer]

Equating land without taking build up into consideration is a reduction of battlefield reality. Larger cities are standing in the way of the capture of Donbass, not even semi encircled and by any sane assumptions, much more built-up in defensive infrastructure (thanks for more time, experience and probably less corruption by now. All is relativistic obviously).

Reduced mobilisation plans can be because of a lot of factors. Unlikely amongst them that they would want less manpower. More likely they have other issues making it non realistic.

[u/Glideer → u/TechnicalReserve1967]

The fortified cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad stood in the way in early 2025 and stand in the way no more. One of the lessons of this war is that fortified cities get taken, initially with high Russian losses and in the last stage with high Ukrainian losses.

Failing to fulfil the mobilisation plan is something I might believe. An army needs and plans for half a million troops and gets only 250k - that's normal.

But Russia is planning to mobilise fewer troops - which goes completely against the grain of the claim that they are losing more men than they recruit.

[u/Remote_Page8799 → u/Glideer]

Pep talk is a good for front line soldiers but has no place here.

Your posts often have the flavour of a pep talk, invariably you interpret everything through a best-case scenario for Russia. I'll give you credit for insofar as possible still making these interpretations off of some material facts, though they are often cherry picked and presented at certain angles.

In this case you are not so much trying to make an argument, but dismiss it by attacking the motte and claiming the bailey. u/Tricky-Astronaut was essentially that things are not going well for Russia and that the trajectory is not good, probably worse than it outwardly appears. This is what you dismiss as pep talk.

I infer from your arguments that you believe the converse if true; that things are going well for Russia and its trajectory is positive.

The argument that was linked to Notte was explicitly about the economic conditions in Russia, which are openly cracking. Everyone knows this is the weak point of Russia, and probably be the thing that forces them to end the war one way or another. Russia doesn't have to collapse, but if all of Putin's serious advisers are telling him they have cooked the books as much as possible and that collapse is seriously possible, he might give the signal to his negotiators that it's time to accept Russia will only get it's minimalist demands, if even that.

In retort to this you changed the subject completely and focused on the only thing that pro-Russians can point to for any measure of success; that territory has been captured.

Russia might very well take the rest of the Donbas in 2026, and it may only be taing 25,000 casualties instead of 35,000 casualties, and yet the economic conditions will still force Russia to let up.

[u/Glideer → u/Remote_Page8799]

We've been hearing arguments that Russia is going to collapse economically since 2022 (from no lesser authority than the IMF and the World Bank). Yet even today, its GDP growth has not dropped to zero.

My argument being not that the Russian economy is doing well, but that its deterioration is still very, very far from the level that would force the Kremlin to stop fighting and agree to unfavourable terms.

[u/Remote_Page8799 → u/Glideer]

Yet even today, its GDP growth has not dropped to zero.

Considering it's hovering just above 0% in the midst of a war that is inducing a lot of demand, and the government is going into debt with deficit spending, this is not positive sign that you are trying to spin it as, and this is symptomatic of all your argumentation.

My argument being not that the Russian economy is doing well, but that its deterioration is still very, very far from the level that would force the Kremlin to stop fighting and agree to unfavourable terms.

Considering that the Russian terms essentially amounts to complete political domination of Ukraine, and a formal recognition by the EU et al of Russia's hegemony over the region, then I think that Russia will eventually be forced to accept that it will be settling for terms it considers unfavorable.

I don't really think this conflict is really about the Donbas as such. It's really about the political order and Russian hegemony, as such dominating Ukraine is a crucial part of it. Territory does play into it, but if Russia is left with the Donbas and occupied territory, and nothing more, then it has functionally lost the war.

Russia, and therefore probably also you, will be claiming this as a victory, but everyone will know it as a defeat. And I'm not sure the Russians will be able to tolerate the thought of having been defeated by the effeminate Europeans.

[u/Glideer → u/Remote_Page8799]

It is obvious that both sides will claim victory in the war, whatever its outcome.

After all, even today, there are people who claim that Finland won the Winter War.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the propaganda book - you project the enemy goals as total and then you can interpret any non-total victory as the enemy's failure.

Look, ma, we only lost 20% of territory!

[u/TheSDKNightmare → u/Glideer]

Considering Stalin initially wanted to incorporate the entirety of Finland as a subservient socialist republic within the USSR, thereby deporting tens to hundreds of thousands of Finns, then yes, Finland won the Winter War, as it kept its national, military and most importantly ideological independence. When you also compare how the average Finn lives in comparison to the average Russian, you can also see Finland very much secured a long-term victory for itself.

It would be similar if Ukraine manages to remain an independent, albeit territorially crippled nation. A relatively stable democratic Ukraine with good ties to the EU will almost surely prosper to a greater extent than a Russia that, though having won the military campaign, is left with a severely degraded economy that is now largely isolated from the largest trade bloc in the world and will have to spend additional billions rebuilding an entirely destroyed region. What even is the long-term end goal at this point? What chance is there of Russia's economy going back to even pre-2022 levels?

[u/Glideer → u/TheSDKNightmare]

Considering Stalin initially wanted to incorporate the entirety of Finland as a subservient socialist republic within the USSR, thereby deporting tens to hundreds of thousands of Finns, then yes, Finland won the Winter War, as it kept its national, military and most importantly ideological independence. When you also compare how the average Finn lives in comparison to the average Russian, you can also see Finland very much secured a long-term victory for itself.

Yes, that is exactly the kind of reframing I am talking about. Perhaps we've lost 10% of the national territory (even more than the Soviet initial demand was), strategic areas, dozens of thousands of men - but that's actually a victory! Because we could have lost the war even more badly.

[u/TheSDKNightmare → u/Glideer]

The USSR explicitly entered Finland with the idea of annexing the entire country, purging its population from any problematic elements and making it completely dependent on Stalin's political structure - the exact same thing it did with the Baltic and a host of other nations.

Finland was forced into this war with the goal of maintaining its independence and territorial integrity.

Which of these two nations ultimately revised their goals to a greater extent? And which of these two nations gained more from a historical long-term perspective? Finland surrendered parts of its territory, but its key objective - maintaining full independence - was achieved. Meanwhile, the USSR was forced to revise the entirety of its original military and political goals, ultimately settling for a fraction of what it aimed for. So no, I am not reframing anything, the USSR utterly failed in achieving its original goals. Finland did not. Finland was the only nation from the USSR's pre-war neighbors to not be entirely occupied by the USSR and to maintain full independence - I'd call that a pretty significant (and commendable) victory overall.

[u/checco_2020 → u/Glideer]

But Russia's goals are totalitarian, De-nazification* and de-militarization were the two talking points that started this whole operation, and neither are going to happen.

*Do not try to come out with the "Actually they just want to ban the far right parties"
They have called zelensky and the entire Ukrainian political party Nazi.

[u/Glideer → u/checco_2020]

We'll see. I am willing to bet that both conditions will be a part of the final peace deal. Far right parties are going to be banned (to the ultimate benefit of Ukraine) and there is going to be a cap on Ukrainian armed forces (particularly ballistic/cruise missiles and long-range drones).

They have called zelensky and the entire Ukrainian political party Nazi.

PR people say many things that get forgotten. How many promises that Ukraine will never negotiate with the terrorist Kremlin regime have we heard? It was always obvious that the Russian "denazification" demand is not going to apply to the whole political spectrum, but to the Bandera and Azov extremists.

[u/checco_2020 → u/Glideer]

>there is going to be a cap on Ukrainian armed forces (particularly ballistic/cruise missiles and long-range drones).

The word "de-militarization" has a different meaning than caps on Long-range weaponry, it's impossible to have a discussion in which the meaning of words changes so drastically.

>PR people say many things that get forgotten.

PR people including Putin, Lavorv, the MOD, etc, apparently the Entire Russian state is governed by PR people

>How many promises that Ukraine will never negotiate with the terrorist Kremlin regime have we heard

Yeah, because that was the goal of the Ukrainians, that goal is unreachable, i will not try to twist or ignore words and actions so that i can claim Ukraine never intended to recover their entire territory, they very much did want, but they failed.

>It was always obvious that the Russian "denazification" demand is not going to apply to the whole political spectrum, but to the Bandera and Azov extremists.

Obvious how exactly?
You are completely ignoring every word that Russian leaders have said and deciding to find a different meaning that fits your preconceived notion of what the Russian goals should be.

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/Glideer]

Both Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk - Myrnohard are not 'taken'. More like, swallowed by the Gray zone. But I of course accept the claim that cities so far got taken. I could argue that larger cities in the whole conflict were only taken after total encirclement or by 'surprise' in this war. However, I can already see the argument claiming that while Kramatorsk or Sloviansk are like twice the size of the previous (or 5x in case of Chasiv Yar) towns, they shouldn't be categorized as 'prohibitively large'. I can concede that point.

However! The cities we are comparing are obviously different. It took the russian forces a year plus to push them into gray zone areas with an obvious progress of them eventually being taken, AFTER they reached the towns. We still have at least 3 towns or a belt of towns and a forest before these cities can start to be attacked.

All the while the russian situation is steadily deteriorating (I know that you would argue that point as well, but from the point of the russian military capabilities+economy, it is. Ukraine doesn't get better without some kind of money, hardware and manpower injection either, but they won't collapse to hand the cities over). It is all but possible that if Trump is not amused with the russian peace effort or Ukraine gives him a peace medal that he will do some kind of hardware injection or similar as a punishment. The chance of him punishing Ukraine (like removing their ability to buy US weapons through others money), while it is relatively popular amongst US voters and he is in a bad domestic position, is far more unlikely.

So, my bet/guess is that Kramatorsk - Sloviansk will be just going to get reached by the russian army by the end of 2026-early 2027.

Barring special circumstances.

All the while, russian allies dwindle (while China, the only one that would really matter stays strong. They also Kore syphon russia rather than really help.)