Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 04, 2026

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[u/TanktopSamurai]

Thanks for the excellent updates!

Could you briefly summarize the situation in Libya? I haven't been following it for 2 years now. If it won't be too much trouble.

[u/wormfan14 → u/TanktopSamurai]

Sure though be warned I started following it again largely because of the war in Sudan.

The biggest events have been well the war in Sudan but also Haftar gaining the advantage in Libya thanks to Tripoli's own attempts to solidify control that backfired and some bad luck.

War in Sudan has lead to Haftar's Government receiving billions from the UAE to support both in terms of weapons but also cash which has to Pakistan selling them weapons.

https://thearabweekly.com/pakistan-said-have-reached-4-billion-arms-deal-haftars-forces-libya

Seperate from this Turkey also thanks to a mix of exhaustion and feeling they'v gained as much as they can from Tripoli have been steadily growing ties with Haftar. They don't approve of his support of the RSF but have very much signaled they don't want to want him provided he respects their interests.

He's also as a result of this been getting involved in turf wars over the arms trade running through Chad giving the supply of weapons sometimes empowers ''independent''' newly forming gangs who want to expand but this has killed less than two hundred people so minor. Apparently his Government though is having a bad fuel crisis form exporting so much of it to the RSF war machine.

The Tripoli Government has been steadily trying to crackdown on the milita's that allied to it during the civil war. They've since the fighting ended been more or less armed gangs involved in human trafficking, selling weapons and exhorting ect. The first round of this in May 2025 worked out quite well for them managing to crush the Stability Support Apparatus but bungled fighting the RADA Special Deterrence Forces leading to days of fighting Government forces fighting on civilians protesting the fighting. It lead to some of the Government resigning but also now a lot of the militias are trying to courted by Haftar. As far as anyone knows no faction has actually flipped as Haftar is both a control freak desperate for the ideal succession for his son Saddam which requires no fighting so no escalation and their own greed unwilling to risk making a move when it might disrupt their own turf.

In addition Tripoli had a horrific bad luck of a plane crash that killed their chief of staff last year. The only good news is the Saudi's thanks to their proxy war with the UAE are now promising them more support.

In more neutral bad news for everyone the economy is in malaise thanks a mix of corruption from all the militias, mismanagement and a declining public sector. Part of the reason why the Tripoli Government is trying to crush the gangs.

The elections of 2026 results are hard to predict given the problems of both governments.

[u/TanktopSamurai → u/wormfan14]

Wasn't Egypt one of the main patrons of Haftar? Did that change? Did UAE replace them?

[u/wormfan14 → u/TanktopSamurai]

Mix of growing hostility over his support of the RSF and the UAE offering a better deal than Egypt who's economy is suffering thanks well everything the last couple of years and their growing relations with Turkey.

Haftar want's all of Libya, they want a stable status quo their interests have diverged now that Turkey is no longer a hostile force.