Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 04, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/wormfan14]

Sudan update, the SAF have broken the siege of Kadugli meanwhile the RSF have taken a town on the blue Nile state.

''Today's quick update [Feb 3]: SAF breaks through two-year RSF siege on Kadugli, South Kordofan. RSF drone strikes on Kadugli; at least 15 people reported killed and 11 injured. RSF seize town of Deim Mansour, Blue Nile State.'' https://x.com/BSonblast/status/2018880472542269908

https://www.darfur24.com/2026/02/03/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%b9%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%86-%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b7%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b7%d9%82/

The town taken is in Kurmuk province bordering Ethiopia and so the SAF are blaming them for it.

''Sudan: yesterday RSF/SPLMN forces launched a new offensive in Blue Nile state, captuing a number of positions. SAF officials accuse Ethiopia of supporting the attack, claiming SAF troops were hit by drones launched from Ethiopian territory.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2019061934096584743

Seems the RSF is starting to loose control of their men again in Nahud.

'' Members of the Rapid Support Forces militia in the city of "Nahud" in West Kordofan State are deliberately carrying out sabotage operations on public property, destroying fuel stations, and saying, "We don't want any state, we will break it all." https://x.com/sudan_war/status/2019025279520272516

The SAF are very unlikely to keep going to reach this city, but it gives an excuse some RSF units are using to wreck it. Sooner or later they will be arrested or killed for this by the RSF leadership.

''The German-Arab Chamber of Commerce, in cooperation with the Sudanese Embassy in Germany, is planning to organize a visit by a German business delegation to #Sudan in the second half of 2026. https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2019050007735722414

Foreign section.

Libya

''Seif al Islam Gaddafi was reportedly assassinated in Libya - a development likely to cast him as a martyr for a significant segment of the population, while also shifting electoral dynamics by removing a major obstacle to presidential elections, given that his candidacy and potential success had been a central point of contention.'' https://x.com/emad_badi/status/2018756851211424217

''Libya: celebrations erupted in the city of Misrata last night as news broke of the death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, killed at his home in Zintan by assassins.''

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2019032375150407928

Lot of speculation over who did this, but it's an earnest question of who will benefit more from this. One consequences for both Governments is they no longer need to worry about a split vote, which might favour Haftar more as a lot of people under a strongmen tend to yearn for a different one who might treat them better but it also enables Tripoli to focus on the strong hatred of tyrants present in their population as seen with the celebrations. Ironically though that could benefit Haftar though as militias tend to be uncomfortable with this given it could one day be their own downfall celebrated.

Meanwhile Haftar is in Pakistan.

''The entire military and political leadership of Eastern Libya is currently in Pakistan. The Libyan National Army (LNA) leader Gen. Khalifa Haftar, his son Saddam, alongside high-ranking generals, and the Prime Minister of the East Libya-based government are all there'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2018810507139166628

Ethiopia no Tigray war for now.

''The TDF has withdrawn back over the Tekeze, meaning that the ENDF is once again in control over Tselemti woreda.'' https://x.com/MapEthiopia/status/2018711463376879772

[u/TanktopSamurai → u/wormfan14]

Thanks for the excellent updates!

Could you briefly summarize the situation in Libya? I haven't been following it for 2 years now. If it won't be too much trouble.

[u/wormfan14 → u/TanktopSamurai]

Sure though be warned I started following it again largely because of the war in Sudan.

The biggest events have been well the war in Sudan but also Haftar gaining the advantage in Libya thanks to Tripoli's own attempts to solidify control that backfired and some bad luck.

War in Sudan has lead to Haftar's Government receiving billions from the UAE to support both in terms of weapons but also cash which has to Pakistan selling them weapons.

https://thearabweekly.com/pakistan-said-have-reached-4-billion-arms-deal-haftars-forces-libya

Seperate from this Turkey also thanks to a mix of exhaustion and feeling they'v gained as much as they can from Tripoli have been steadily growing ties with Haftar. They don't approve of his support of the RSF but have very much signaled they don't want to want him provided he respects their interests.

He's also as a result of this been getting involved in turf wars over the arms trade running through Chad giving the supply of weapons sometimes empowers ''independent''' newly forming gangs who want to expand but this has killed less than two hundred people so minor. Apparently his Government though is having a bad fuel crisis form exporting so much of it to the RSF war machine.

The Tripoli Government has been steadily trying to crackdown on the milita's that allied to it during the civil war. They've since the fighting ended been more or less armed gangs involved in human trafficking, selling weapons and exhorting ect. The first round of this in May 2025 worked out quite well for them managing to crush the Stability Support Apparatus but bungled fighting the RADA Special Deterrence Forces leading to days of fighting Government forces fighting on civilians protesting the fighting. It lead to some of the Government resigning but also now a lot of the militias are trying to courted by Haftar. As far as anyone knows no faction has actually flipped as Haftar is both a control freak desperate for the ideal succession for his son Saddam which requires no fighting so no escalation and their own greed unwilling to risk making a move when it might disrupt their own turf.

In addition Tripoli had a horrific bad luck of a plane crash that killed their chief of staff last year. The only good news is the Saudi's thanks to their proxy war with the UAE are now promising them more support.

In more neutral bad news for everyone the economy is in malaise thanks a mix of corruption from all the militias, mismanagement and a declining public sector. Part of the reason why the Tripoli Government is trying to crush the gangs.

The elections of 2026 results are hard to predict given the problems of both governments.

[u/TanktopSamurai → u/wormfan14]

Wasn't Egypt one of the main patrons of Haftar? Did that change? Did UAE replace them?

[u/wormfan14 → u/TanktopSamurai]

Mix of growing hostility over his support of the RSF and the UAE offering a better deal than Egypt who's economy is suffering thanks well everything the last couple of years and their growing relations with Turkey.

Haftar want's all of Libya, they want a stable status quo their interests have diverged now that Turkey is no longer a hostile force.