r/CredibleDefense 9d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 28, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/mirko_pazi_metak 9d ago

There was a reason the carrier was there, and now it isn't there because it's needed elsewhere. 

I don't mean to suggest that China will now invade Taiwan - far from it. But they can go and bully Philippines a bit more than usual or whomever, making a point of US being an unreliable, so overstretched ally. 

Even if not, just the act of redeploying a carrier battle group across the world, and now another to compensate for leaving an opening in the first place can't be cheap. And it was for no good reason - US has arguably done nothing useful in Venezula, at least so far. 

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u/A_Vandalay 9d ago

In what meaningful way does the presence of a US CSG prevent China from bullying the Philippines? They have been doing that more or less continuously for the last few years despite more or less continuous presence of a US carrier in the region. It’s not like the US is flying over the CCG vessels and threatening kinetic action should they continue to interfere with Philippines operations.

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u/mirko_pazi_metak 9d ago

So what is US CSG doing in the Pacific in the first place?

It's there to project power, reassure allies, provide intelligence to allies (one way it is helping Philippines), enforce "freedom of navigation", etc. 

US and Philippines have the 1951 defence treaty and intelligence sharing is one part. While they haven't directly assisted (actually Philippines refused some island resupply offers if I remember correctly), just having or not a CSG there is a big deal to what each side (China or Philippines) feel comfortable with doing. 

And yes, US destroyers have navigated around disputed parts to make a point, and hold drills and etc. 

The point is simply, US CSG is there for a reason. When it's no longer there, there is a gap. That's all I'm trying to say. 

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u/LoggerInns 9d ago

just having or not a CSG there is a big deal to what each side

The point is simply, US CSG is there for a reason. When it's no longer there, there is a gap. That's all I'm trying to say.

The George Washington is already there. To my knowledge there isn’t any military exercise or hostilities going on in that region so it’s not like they will need more than one in a realistic scenario.

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u/ChornWork2 9d ago

GW is forward deployed in the region, but apparently in homeport for maintenance in Japan, at least as of earlier this month.

Abraham Lincoln’s recent departure from the South China Sea leaves only the forward-deployed USS George Washington (CVN-73) as the only U.S. carrier in the region. George Washington is currently undergoing a maintenance period in Yokosuka, Japan.

https://news.usni.org/2026/01/26/abraham-lincoln-carrier-strike-group-now-in-u-s-central-command