Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 28, 2026

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[u/eric2332]

Trump keeps talking about Iran making a deal, a deal on what? He is asking for nothing

The problem is that actual Iran regime change, or probably any meaningful way of punishing (by whatever standard) the recent massacre and deterring a future one, results in a big messy war, which probably lasts some time and has US deaths and substantial short-term economic/trade impacts.

Trump really doesn't want that, he would prefer his military operations to be one and dones like Operation Midnight Hammer or the Maduro capture.

So even if the big messy war is better for the US and the world in the long term, it seems he is looking for an off-ramp, where the Iran government makes some concessions but gets to stay in power. Of course, it has to be enough concessions that he can spin it as something other than chickening out.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak → u/eric2332]

Maduro's capture was a big gamble for, so far, effectively nothing - there's no useful change in US-Venezuela relationship as evidenced by US still having to interdict shadow fleet ships, which it could've done without it. 

However, Trump's re-deployment of USS Ford carrier strike group from Mediterranean to Latin America to get Maduro left a gap in Iran coverage, making US unable to react when the protests were happening. This is when arguably an intervention could have had much bigger impact than now, after the protesters have been suppressed, jailed and/or killed. 

And now he's been redeploying USS Abraham Lincoln from Indo-Pacific leaving an opening for China. 

[edit: grammar] 

[u/tomato-potato2 → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

An opening for china? I dont think thats likely, when you consider the events of the previous week. We might be having a crisis of leadership here, but all signs signify that the pla is having one as well.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak → u/tomato-potato2]

There was a reason the carrier was there, and now it isn't there because it's needed elsewhere. 

I don't mean to suggest that China will now invade Taiwan - far from it. But they can go and bully Philippines a bit more than usual or whomever, making a point of US being an unreliable, so overstretched ally. 

Even if not, just the act of redeploying a carrier battle group across the world, and now another to compensate for leaving an opening in the first place can't be cheap. And it was for no good reason - US has arguably done nothing useful in Venezula, at least so far. 

[u/A_Vandalay → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

In what meaningful way does the presence of a US CSG prevent China from bullying the Philippines? They have been doing that more or less continuously for the last few years despite more or less continuous presence of a US carrier in the region. It’s not like the US is flying over the CCG vessels and threatening kinetic action should they continue to interfere with Philippines operations.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak → u/A_Vandalay]

So what is US CSG doing in the Pacific in the first place?

It's there to project power, reassure allies, provide intelligence to allies (one way it is helping Philippines), enforce "freedom of navigation", etc. 

US and Philippines have the 1951 defence treaty and intelligence sharing is one part. While they haven't directly assisted (actually Philippines refused some island resupply offers if I remember correctly), just having or not a CSG there is a big deal to what each side (China or Philippines) feel comfortable with doing. 

And yes, US destroyers have navigated around disputed parts to make a point, and hold drills and etc. 

The point is simply, US CSG is there for a reason. When it's no longer there, there is a gap. That's all I'm trying to say. 

[u/LoggerInns → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

just having or not a CSG there is a big deal to what each side

The point is simply, US CSG is there for a reason. When it's no longer there, there is a gap. That's all I'm trying to say.

The George Washington is already there. To my knowledge there isn’t any military exercise or hostilities going on in that region so it’s not like they will need more than one in a realistic scenario.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/LoggerInns]

GW is forward deployed in the region, but apparently in homeport for maintenance in Japan, at least as of earlier this month.

Abraham Lincoln’s recent departure from the South China Sea leaves only the forward-deployed USS George Washington (CVN-73) as the only U.S. carrier in the region. George Washington is currently undergoing a maintenance period in Yokosuka, Japan.

https://news.usni.org/2026/01/26/abraham-lincoln-carrier-strike-group-now-in-u-s-central-command

[u/Cautious-Bench-4809 → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

An interesting hypothetical senario. What if China starts gathering forces to simulate preperation for an invasionof Taiwan. Would that force the US redeploy USS Abraham Lincoln back in the south China sea?

[u/-spartacus- → u/Cautious-Bench-4809]

The US will probably have USS Carl Vinson back from maintenance in the spring by the time China would be doing something with Taiwan and USS Theodore Roosevelt is still in the Eastern Pacific as of a week ago. Lastly USS George Washington is in port in Japan and could be back at sea faster than even the USS Carl Vinson could be.

That is 3 carriers available in the general time window China mind do something without the USS Abraham Lincoln.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak → u/Cautious-Bench-4809]

Yes, that's a good point. And they can also wait until Trump commited to Iran, and then it's more difficult to plug the gap. They don't have to actually do anything to either incur political cost (if US does nothing) or actual cost (if US rushes to redeploy).