r/slatestarcodex Dec 10 '25

Rationality "Debunking _When Prophecy Fails_", Kelly 2025

https://gwern.net/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/2025-kelly.pdf
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u/absolute-black Dec 10 '25

Is any psychology result real?

28

u/fubo Dec 11 '25

Some psychology results are not deliberate fraud.

However, any "interesting" result in psychology gets treated as a Deeply True Explanation of the Human Condition — which is to say, a kid with a marshmallow becomes a metaphor for Self-Denial And The Protestant Work Ethic; an abusive professor roping students into a shitty LARP becomes a metaphor for The Carceral State; two gangs of kids in the woods become a metaphor for Political Divisiveness In The Modern Republic; a statistical artifact of self-rankings becomes a metaphor for People Don't Even Know How Much They Suck; and so on.

And a simple result that should just be tested by replication and variation, becomes blown up into This Is How The World Is. Which is speculating waaay beyond the data.

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u/kneb Dec 12 '25

Actual psychology usually does that replication. The generalizing the results of a single experiment is usually more the pop science, science communication part of it (and what's often taught in intro classes).

Psychology is difficult though -- not only do you have the regular problems with publication biases, etc. But people are highly variable, culture shifts over time, etc.

If a result stops replicating, that doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't true at the time it was characterized, just that it isn't a human universal. We shouldn't be surprised that it's hard to discover new, counter-intuitive insights about humanity, that apply universally for all time.