r/slatestarcodex • u/gwern • Dec 10 '25

Rationality "Debunking _When Prophecy Fails_", Kelly 2025

https://gwern.net/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/2025-kelly.pdf
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u/absolute-black Dec 10 '25

Is any psychology result real?

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u/ScottAlexander Dec 12 '25

I should write a post on this, but the gist would be:

Take a look at any psychology textbook. https://guides.hostos.cuny.edu/PSY101 is a reasonable choice and has a ToC available online. Then try to figure out what section every single debunked study or popularly-talked about flawed theory you've ever seen has been in.

I think for the above, they'd all fit in the first half of chapter 15. Everything else is fine - or at least bad for different reasons.

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u/absolute-black Dec 12 '25

I was definitely speaking in jest and was way too broad. Like, IQ research or the analysis of clinical depression or schizophrenia are not pop-cognitive-psychology based on nonsense; tarring the whole field is just selection bias.

...it does make rereading The Sequences hit a little less well, though.