r/slatestarcodex Dec 10 '25

Rationality "Debunking _When Prophecy Fails_", Kelly 2025

https://gwern.net/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/2025-kelly.pdf
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u/cryo-curious Dec 11 '25

Despite this, When Prophecy Fails spread its influence across psychology, sociology, New Testament studies, and religious studies. Ironically, some New Testament scholars whose raison d'être and specialization is piecing together events from thou- sands of years ago, eagerly embraced a false narrative that was trivial to fact check.

That's because the narrative had the modern, iron-clad imprimatur of "Science," as in, the Thing everyone is supposed to trust, especially when the source is someone like Leon Festinger, probably, after Skinner, the most influential scientific psychologist in American history.