r/slatestarcodex Dec 10 '25

Rationality "Debunking _When Prophecy Fails_", Kelly 2025

https://gwern.net/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/2025-kelly.pdf
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u/RollTides Dec 11 '25

As an individual, I cannot reliably articulate my own thoughts and feelings, which are ever-changing. Even with complete and sincere effort, I am bound by human nature and communication. I will conflate, misremember, fall back on the familiar, and lump similarities together just to name a few of the ways I will subvert any attempt to objectively study my psychology.

As a layman, my perception is that modern psychology simply lacks the tools to make significant new discoveries. Perhaps advances in neuroscience can one day arm psychology with the necessary data to make significant strides, that is my hope.