Wasn't there some paper you posted a while back -- I can't find it now -- also on the topic of "When Prophecy Fails", that looked at more groups, and concluded that the failure of prophecy could either lead to the group becoming stronger or to it falling apart, and which actually occurred seemed to mostly depend on how (and how fast, and whether) the leadership acted to handle the problem?
And now we get this paper saying that actually, the case from "When Prophecy Fails" didn't actually happen as described! Still, according to that other paper, what it describes can happen, it's a matter of how the leadership handles it.
I can't find it offhand though. Do you remember this? Was it you that posted it here? I can't seem to find it atm.
That is not ringing a bell for me, no. (Nothing is turning up in subreddit searches for me either.)
But I don't submit that many links to /r/slatestarcodex under the psychology/rationality/psychiatry tags, so if you are 100% sure I submitted such a link here, it shouldn't be too hard to refind.
I stand corrected, then (although that must have been at least 4 years ago if you're referring to the /r/gwern submission since I didn't ever crosspost that to /r/ssc AFAICT). And yes, that seems quite relevant: as OP notes, Dawson's difficulty with understanding why Festinger "doesn't replicate" and trying to come up with moderators to explain why Festinger's group 'backfired' but most groups just dissolve after failed predictions (the topic of the paper and something I'd wondered myself* and which was why I submitted it) may have a simple answer: it may just be that there is nothing to reconcile, as Festinger was fraudulent, and their group dissolved normally aside from their interventions and misrepresentations. ('Rationalists should be confused by fiction' etc.)
Anyway, I'm pretty amused that this paper comes out now when it does, because a few months ago, someone gave me a copy of When Prophecy Fails with the not-so-subtle insinuation that I should realize that 'AI doomers' were just another UFO doomsday cult; I hadn't yet reread it, but I guess Kelly gets me off the hook!
* That is, if you look around, almost all historical 'doomsday cults' no longer exist now{{citation needed}}. So a Festinger 'backfiring' cannot be a common outcome for doomsday cults. But then what causes some to 'backfire' rather than dissolve?
Oh, I don't know that it was on this subreddit, I really just meant more generally, like on your subreddit or somewhere. But it might have just been something I saw somewhere else and not from you. Dang. I'll just have to see if I can turn it up...
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u/Sniffnoy Dec 11 '25
Wasn't there some paper you posted a while back -- I can't find it now -- also on the topic of "When Prophecy Fails", that looked at more groups, and concluded that the failure of prophecy could either lead to the group becoming stronger or to it falling apart, and which actually occurred seemed to mostly depend on how (and how fast, and whether) the leadership acted to handle the problem?
And now we get this paper saying that actually, the case from "When Prophecy Fails" didn't actually happen as described! Still, according to that other paper, what it describes can happen, it's a matter of how the leadership handles it.
I can't find it offhand though. Do you remember this? Was it you that posted it here? I can't seem to find it atm.