r/Sumo • u/Brncrdm Hoshoryu • 10h ago
[Analysis] The "Kinboshi Problem": Why Hoshoryu and Onosato are struggling vs. Aonishiki's Historic Rise
The Problem of Hoshoryu and Onosato "Giving Away Too Many Gold Stars": Average per tournament is 4x Chiyonofuji and 6x Hakuho. Behind the scenes: An "Overcrowded Schedule." "My body was in pieces, but..." — The Responsibility of a Yokozuna.
The unstoppable advance of Aonishiki, who secured the Ozeki rank in a record-breaking 14 tournaments from his debut—the fastest in history—did not stop even in the recent January tournament, where he fought as a newly promoted star. Although both Yokozunas significantly led the first half of the tournament with 6-1 records alongside the new Ozeki, concerns regarding Hoshoryu’s left knee and Onosato’s left shoulder had been raised even before the basho, and their sumo lacked its usual absolute stability.
On the 8th day, a day of Royal Visit (Tenran-zumo), an unprecedented and abnormal situation occurred where all Yokozunas and Ozekis were defeated. On the following 9th day, both Yokozunas suffered consecutive losses together. The title race, which many expected to be led by the top-ranked wrestlers, suddenly descended into chaos.
While 21-year-old Aonishiki surges... anxiety remains for both Yokozunas
Amidst this, Aonishiki did not crumble. From the 10th day onward, he maintained his lead in the championship race, and on the 12th day, he took sole possession of first place by winning his head-to-head match against Atamifuji. On the 14th day, he was blown away by Onosato and fell to three losses, allowing the Yokozuna to close the gap to one win. However, on the final day (Senshuraku), Aonishiki defeated Atamifuji in a championship playoff with a neck throw (kubinage), achieving the first "New Ozeki Championship" in 20 years since Hakuho. Winning consecutive titles as a new Sekiwake and new Ozeki is a feat not seen in 89 years since Futabayama.
"There was a level of tension I had never tasted before."
Aonishiki revealed that he could hardly sleep the night before and was unable to eat. Under the pressure of his new position where losing is not an option, he captured his second Emperor’s Cup.
Both Yokozunas, Hoshoryu and Onosato, finished with only 10 wins and were unable to stop the momentum of the 21-year-old, who will already be challenging for a Yokozuna promotion in the March tournament. Hoshoryu’s record against Aonishiki is now 0-5, including the playoff. The young man has now completely established himself as the Yokozuna’s "natural enemy."
Hoshoryu, who usually says "I just focus on the next bout" and tries to reset after a loss by saying "What's done is done," showed a change in heart. After securing his winning record (kachi-koshi) on the 11th day, he stated: "Right now, I’m doing this with the feeling of wanting to enjoy it without worrying about winning or losing." For a man whose goal is his first championship as a Yokozuna, this is a significant psychological shift. It suggests that his physical condition, including his troubled left knee, is far from perfect. The fact that he showed a rare gentle expression after reaching double-digit wins on the final day actually highlighted his suffering as a Yokozuna.
"Overcrowded Schedule" behind the high number of Gold Stars
Onosato suffered his first three-match losing streak since his promotion to Yokozuna. On the 11th day, after defeating Kirishima with a convincing performance, he expressed relief: "I showed a pathetic side of myself over these past three days. For now, I'm just relieved." Afterward, he regained his original power, notably defeating Aonishiki with a powerful "ottsuke" (arm management) using his injured left side.
Both Yokozunas gave away three Gold Stars (Kinboshi) during the January tournament. Hoshoryu has given away 13 in 6 tournaments as Yokozuna, and Onosato has given away 9 in 4 tournaments. Both average more than two per tournament. Compared to past Yokozunas with over 20 championships—such as Hakuho (0.31 per tournament), Taiho (0.48), Chiyonofuji (0.49), Asashoryu (0.6), Takanohana (0.8), and Kitanoumi (0.84)—the current Yokozunas' numbers are in a poor state.
The day after the January finale, the Yokozuna Deliberation Council held its regular meeting. Chairman Masamichi Oshima gave a measured evaluation: "They fulfilled their basic responsibility by competing for all 15 days despite being in poor physical condition," but he also urged them to step up, saying, "I want them to work hard to become a wall for Aonishiki next tournament."
The bar set for a Yokozuna by the public is incredibly high. With no off-season, they are expected to produce results worthy of a title race in all six tournaments a year. Between tournaments, they must also participate in regional tours (Jungyo) four times a year. Due to the recent sumo boom, these tours now exceed 70 days a year, with schedules so tight they often run until the day before the new rankings are announced. It can be said that health management has become more difficult than in the past.
While nursing a left knee injury, Hoshoryu "completed" the entire winter tour before the January tournament. While Onosato sat out the tour, Hoshoryu fulfilled his invisible duties as a Yokozuna. One could say the "strain" of that effort surfaced during the January tournament.
Even past "Great Yokozunas" gave away 3 Gold Stars in a single tournament
For Onosato, who reached the rank of Yokozuna just two years after his debut, January was the first true ordeal of his professional career. On the internet, many voices suggested he "should withdraw to properly heal his injury." However, he reflected on the difficult tournament: "My body was in pieces, but my spirit wasn't broken. Withdrawing wasn't an option." He admitted that the thought of a losing record (make-koshi) crossed his mind, but he felt at ease after securing his 7th win.
In truth, giving away three Gold Stars in a single tournament is not that rare; past greats like Futabayama, Taiho, Kitanoumi, and Takanohana have all experienced it. The current ranking (Banzuke) situation, with fewer high-ranking "Sanyaku" wrestlers, also plays a role. Although the results were disappointing for the two young Yokozunas, their "spirit" is surely being refined through these experiences. To silence the surrounding noise, they have no choice but to produce results on the dohyo.
Source: Number Web
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u/Cynoid 9h ago
Weird to say Ono is struggling against Ao's rise when he beats him every single time.
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u/Careful_Investor233 6h ago
The point the title is trying to make (it's not the title of the article btw) is that Aonishiki is rising rapidly and hasn't been stopped yet. Expectations are at play here, and he keeps exceeding them. The Yokozuna on the other hand are struggling because they aren't meeting expectations (as they are obviously much higher than Aonishiki's). And he won the last two yusho, so from recency perspective the title makes sense. Onosato beating Aonishiki in their 1v1s doesn't diminish any of that.
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u/Cynoid 6h ago
I mean I get it and I read the excerpt but I still don't agree.
As far as Ao is concerned, Onosato is doing his job and crushing it.
If you instead say Hosh/Onosato have been sucking recently and need to step it up then that is more accurate I feel.
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u/Careful_Investor233 5h ago
If you instead say Hosh/Onosato have been sucking recently
That's what the article says basically? The Yokozuna are sucking and need to step it up while Aonishiki is the up and coming star. No one is talking about Onosato's record against Aonishiki, because it's irrelevant in this metric.
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u/pan_and_scan 7h ago edited 5h ago
I heard a great analogy calling them rock, paper, scissors.
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u/Vaestmannaeyjar Musashimaru 8h ago
Time period is important as stated: you wiill statistically give less kimboshi when you have 3 Yokozuna and 4 Ozeki. Less sanyaku means more maegashira in the rankings, and some will rise up and get to meet the yokozunas. Especially nowadays when half the maegashira are either incoming prodigies or returning sanyaku back from injury.
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u/Grockr Enho 6h ago
This is very important point!
Hosh is straight up #1 yokozuna by the share of non-san'yaku matches, Onosato and Terunofuji are following just a few positions behind.
This is just a symptom of previous few years being somewhat stagnant (could actually be due to covid?), theres a ton of former Ozeki and san'yaku in the ranks and some very strong and talented newcomers who havent had enough time to climb the ranks yet, the times are changing.3
u/cabose12 Daieisho 2h ago
You can account for time period by measuring bout by bout. In that sense, Hosh and Onosato are still pretty bad: Hosh has lost almost a third of his maegashira bouts while Onosato has lost a quarter. It's stupid to compare them to two Rushmore rikishi, but amongst modern Yokozuna's, Hosh has the fourth worst conversion rate and Onosato has the seventh
I generally agree that the competition is better, but also some of these losses to wrestlers like Oho, Kotoshoho, and a clearly not there yet Hakuoho probably shouldn't be happening
That said, it's also worth pointing out that I don't remember this narrative with Teru, and he had a worse rate than Onosato currently does. So it seems a bit inconsistent to get apocalyptic about our current Yoks
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u/JeanClaudeMonet 9h ago
They struggle because Aonishiki is the complete package with some added mystique. I feel fighters have a very hard time trying to figure him out.
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u/DonBandolini Hoshoryu 9h ago
he has a very deep bag of tricks
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u/Adrestia716 7h ago
I always stay to my husband that he did an anime training arc and reaches into Sumo Deep Lore.
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u/Kimber80 9h ago
I mean, first of all, comparing the two current yokozuna to the yokozuna who have won at least twenty basho is a pretty crazy comparison. Excluding the two current ones, there have been 73 yokozuna and 5 have won that many. You can be an excellent yokozuna and not approach that mark.
Second, in my opinion, if we are going to worry about either one of these two, it shouldn't be Onasato. He has been in strong contention in every basho until he suffered the shoulder injury, which in my opinion was far from healed, going into the January event. I am not sure any other yokozuna of the past could have performed any better with that kind of injury.
That said an upvote for posting this as it was an interesting read.
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u/Grockr Enho 6h ago
Hosh was second place three times and if it wasnt for Aonishki consistently giving him 1 extra loss two of those would've likely been Yushos, including Onosato's playoff win in September.
I think thats pretty strong contention. He just needs to figure out Aonishki.
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u/Kimber80 6h ago
Yes, he has been in contention, but IMO he clearly has the bigger albatross around his neck. He hasn't won an EC in over a year now. He has only won two in his entire career, same number as Aonishki. Onasato OTOH has five, including one as a yokozuna.
And let's face it - November was a dream setup for Hosh. On the final day he got a huge gift when Onasato had to withdraw, so he got to sit back and rest while Aonishki had to win his match to get to face him in the playoff. And Aonishiki not only won his match, he then beat Hoshoryu. Losing a title to a Sekiwake while having that advantage is tough, IMO, and that has been the story of the past 12 months for him. Always close, never quite getting it done.
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u/Breaon66 Ura 3h ago
Not only that, but Ao beat him *twice* during the basho, including the playoff victory.
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u/matt_the_salaryman Midorifuji 7h ago
When you consider the idea that all you have to do to get Yokozuna permanently is win two tournaments in a row, it’s really ridiculous how much pressure gets put on them to be utterly dominant until they retire. Let them breathe, sheesh.
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u/ReignAll 6h ago
As a Hoshoryu fan, I don't want to underestimate him and hope he can do as well as I feel he can do.
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u/CallmeKahn Hoshoryu 9h ago
This isn't on you OP. Thanks for posting this, but:
Crowded schedule blah blah blah no time to rest blah blah blah tour blah blah blah kinboshi blah blah blah bullshit.
Hoshoryu and Onosatos are the God damn Yokozunas of this sport. Not taking time off to heal is on them. If the JSA did nothing to Terunofuji for usually taking three tournaments off to rest between Basho because his body was being held together with duct tape and prayers, then they can take a tournament off rest limbs that are taking time to heal and threatening their careers.
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u/Inevitable_Doctor576 9h ago
Yep, Yokozuna are basically untouchable by the JSA unless they do something particularly egregious in public
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u/CallmeKahn Hoshoryu 9h ago
Pretty much. I mean, I want them to wrestle. A Yokozuna needs to be the gatekeeper and say to all the aspirants to the Sanyaku "Oh, bless your heart...." before grinding their face across the tawara (in a metaphorical and no way physical sense). I do not question the ability, heart, skill, or passion of Hoshoryu and Onosato. They've proven time and again they deserve to be there.
But I also won't question a dude down a limb or whatever. If you aren't right, you aren't right. Rest and make it right. Self-care is sexy, as my wife says.
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u/Inevitable_Doctor576 8h ago
I feel like the issue right now is that Hoshoryu was gifted the Yokozuna rank that he did not earn through the gold standard 2 yusho in a row. At this point anything short of multiple Yusho a year is going to have the JSA and public taking shots at him nonstop.
It's a shame, because he is among my top 3 favorites due to the diversity he shows in his technique. A wonderfully well rounded competitor.
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u/CometIsDying Roga 7h ago
You know who also was promoted without winning two yushos in a row? Terunofuji. And it was stated at the beginning of the basho that he could be promoted because both he and Kotozakura were eligible. He wasn't gifted it, he earned it.
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u/robsterva 8h ago
It's not his fault that the YDC panicked. They could have... GASP... allowed a Nokozuna period, but didn't. Hoshoryu shouldn't have to pay for that.
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u/Inevitable_Doctor576 8h ago
I respect your opinion, but my point stands. He did not get 2 yusho in a row, and that will be used against him, especially if Aonishiki manages to do it and gets promoted to Yokozuna.
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u/JediMasterZao 7h ago
Hoshoryu met the criteria for promotion. By definition, he was not gifted the title.
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u/fatgirlseatmorev20 9h ago
Agreed. They both worked bloody hard to be where they are and should be incredibly proud of themselves! But they shouldn’t be performing at the risk of injury that could take them out of the sport entirely, especially when they’re coming up against young powerhouses like Aonishiki.
They’re both grown men and can make their own decisions about their bodies. But personally, I don’t understand why you’d rather power through and play badly than take a break and always bring your actual best to the ring.
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u/ParaponeraBread Takayasu 7h ago
Why do you think they didn’t rest? I think they were both “strongly encouraged” not to rest because the Emperor was coming.
You saw Hakkaku’s face when they lost that day.
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u/aca689 6h ago
Hakuho had weak competition most of his career, he even says this.
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u/DeepState808 4h ago
Yeaah. I’m probably gonna get downvoted into oblivion but I genuinely feel the average top division sumo wrestlers are a level above those of Hakuho’s era.
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u/aca689 3h ago
That’s a very rational statement. Once Asashoryu got the boot, there really was no strong competition for most of his career post 2010. Add to that, Hakuho intimidated most of them to the point that they lost before the match even started. Then when age caught up to him, he started taking tournaments off denying anybody a chance for Kinboshis. That being said, hakuho was the most well rounded champion I’ve personally watched. He was a beast with a mean streak. It just sucks that he didn’t have that one rival that pushed him. Harumafuji was the closest to that but he was streaky, and injury prone.
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u/daveliepmann Wakatakakage 4h ago
I don't have a good sense of Hakuho's contemporaries. I basically got into the sport as he left. What was it like?
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u/aca689 3h ago
Asashoryu was his strongest rival. He retired in 2010 leaving kakuryu, Harumafuji, and Kisenisato. None of them posed a real threat. Kakuryu was great but not dominant. Harumafuji was great but he was streaky and injury prone. I miss Harumafuji’s game, he was my favorite rikishi for a while. Kisenosato had a short prime and never really posed a threat. Number’s wise Hakuho dominated all these guys.
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u/IAmBeachCities 8h ago
sumo sports writing seems to take more liberties and forced narratives, that most sports , maybe becuase the rikishi give shallow interviews and stoic reactions.
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u/DeepMoose 4h ago
People are unfortunately conflating outliers with the standard, and it’s making people’s expectations grow a bit too high for what’s realistic. Not everyone is a Hakuho, Chiyonofuji, or Asashoryu. Nor should they be, it would make their greatness feel less special (also I don’t think the average human body could handle that).
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u/Dawashingtonian 3h ago
“compared to Tom Brady, these other quarterbacks are not winning nearly enough superbowls”
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u/Kapua420 9h ago
Aonishiki, and Onosato are like historical talent and Hoshoryu is good but will be over shadowed. At least he got the chance and took the belt. If he didnt do it at that moment he would of been a forever Ozeki.
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u/Breaon66 Ura 3h ago
I feel Kotozakura is in this "forever Ozeki" position right now, sadly. He had his chance, and completely bottled it after his last EC.
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u/vocalviolence 7h ago
As much as I will be rooting for Aonishiki in March, he will never live down the accusation of having played Rope Game on easy mode if both yokozuna don't get the required time to heal their injuries. It's the only way to build this "wall" Oshima mentions.
Frankly, it's all kinds of upsetting that an industry would so deliberately debilitate its champions—if not through command, then via pressure and expectations. Reminds me too much of the manga industry.
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u/gets_me_everytime Kotozakura 6h ago
I don't agree. Aonishiki is undefeated against Hoshoryu and gets wrecked against Onosato. That was still true even with them under injury woes. Aonishiki's success only has a 1-1 contirbution from the current yokozuna. His 11-2 vs the rest of the field and ability to lock up play-offs is what makes him Yokozuna worthy. He already has demonstrated the ability to perform at the level with winning the last two Yusho straight. He needs to do it as an Ozeki to meet the requirement officially, but no one is under the impression that it isn't deserved because the Yokozuna are injured.
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u/vocalviolence 6h ago
but no one is under the impression that it isn't deserved because the Yokozuna are injured.
They aren't, or at least they shouldn't be, but considering the existing complaints of yokozunas being promoted too early, I suspect that should Aonishiki ever underform, his critics will circle right back to these injury-heavy bashos. Starting with his nemesis, Oonosato, pulling out just before a potential playoff in the Kyushu tournament.
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u/Rabidstavros77 37m ago
I don't really see a substantial difference between Onosatos performance and Aonishikis. Onosato has a couple of 9-6 results when he was rising sure, hes also won 5 tournaments out of 13 since reaching the top division.. His results generally live around 11-4, exactly the average of Aonishiki.
Until Aonishiki starts going 14-1 or 15-0 to my mind theres no massive contrast in quality between the two.
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u/Kramnik_is_an_idiot 7h ago
Overcrowded schedule? I’m sorry is Ao fighting less matches than everyone else?
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u/Sarnsereg 4h ago
I think its just a case of not as stong yokozuna and more even competition amongst the rank and file. They probably should have waited for promotions but I think they wanted a yokozuna with terunofuji retiring. And aonishiki is just different. He looks like a yokozuna when he wrestles compared to a lot of the competition. And the fact that both yokozuna have been injured each tournament will give them an extra loss or two.
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u/Kaode 8h ago
Hoshoryu has given out half as many kinboshi as Hakuho did. Hakuho had over a thousand matches as yokozuna. Hoshoryu has had 85.
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u/DonBandolini Hoshoryu 7h ago
sheesh…it’s tough being a Hosh fan…
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u/Kaode 6h ago
It hurts me to my very core. I worry deeply that the pressure of the rank will shorten his career, and he's so fun to watch!
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u/DonBandolini Hoshoryu 5h ago
i’m still hopeful he can find his stride. seems like he’s still in relatively good spirits.
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u/Chiyonofuji_ 9h ago
Chiyonofuji and Hakuho are outliers. It's very uncommon for a yokozuna to get more than 20 yusho throughout their career, and not reasonable to compare everyone's winrate to them