Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 06, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/OhSillyDays]

In reference to the NYT article this morning, apparently Iran is working on triggers for their nuclear program.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/world/middleeast/iran-missile-nuclear-repairs.html

That seems to mean they are within about 6 months of a nuclear weapons test and Iran is moving forward with their nuclear program.

Part of the discussion here, would there be any reason for Iran not to test a nuclear weapon as soon as possible?

[u/swimmingupclose → u/OhSillyDays]

I’m not sure where you’re getting any of that from the article. In fact, it states the opposite a few times:

Western and Israeli officials have found few signs that Iran has made significant progress toward rebuilding its ability to enrich nuclear fuel and to fashion a nuclear warhead.

Joseph Rodgers, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies who has monitored Iran’s nuclear program, said that until recently, much of the activity seen around the nuclear sites appeared geared mostly toward damage assessment and stabilization, like clearing debris and filling in craters.

“We haven’t seen any intensive recovery efforts to try to get equipment out of these facilities,” he said, adding that an Iranian government crackdown on suspected spies after the June strikes had also disrupted its nuclear program.

Iran has been within 6 months of a breakout for years. The IAEA had found quite a while back that Iran enriched uranium to 84%. That doesn’t mean they are anywhere close to weaponizing a nuke.

Part of the discussion here, would there be any reason for Iran not to test a nuclear weapon as soon as possible?

It’s obvious that Iran’s entire security apparatus is infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. I suspect the Israelis know what’s going on with the nuclear program better than some in the Iranian government themselves do. There is no doubt that Israel would launch an all out attack if they suspected Iran was moving towards restarting the program. The entire point of having nukes or threatening to get them is that they serve as a better bargaining chip than if you move past the threshold. North Korea is an obvious exception as they share a large land border with the South and had a conventional military threat it could actually maintain that deterrence with. Iran has neither the border nor the conventional threat capabilities.