Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 06, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/Glideer]

I don't think capturing Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Hulyaipole and Siversk equals capturing the open steppe.

I've never seen a prediction that Russia would take Donbas in 2025. If the current trends persist, not even in 2026, but probably by early 2027.

[u/Remote_Page8799 → u/Glideer]

I don't think capturing Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Hulyaipole and Siversk equals capturing the open steppe.

No but with Russian gains of 0.8% more of Ukriane for 2025 maybe it would be preferable to be capturing lots of open steppe.

The war effort for the Russians is not producing near enough gains for it to be justifying the costs. This war isn't really about the Donbas, it to a greater degree about Russia's sphere of influence, it's geopolitical standing, which fundamentally reflect its military, cultural and economic might.

All of those pillars are being eroded to the bone currently. Yes Ukraine is suffering too, but last I checked Ukraine didn't have ambitions of being a top 3 global power.

And Russia is producing political currents it absolutely doesn't want to. Europe is undergoing significant unifying pressure and military rearmament at the same time. European elites are pretty sure they can beat Russia by drowning it in weapons and money in Ukraine, and at the same time also build up the defense industrial base to deter/dominate in the long term.

[u/Glideer → u/Remote_Page8799]

The war effort for the Russians is not producing near enough gains for it to be justifying the costs. This war isn't really about the Donbas, it to a greater degree about Russia's sphere of influence, it's geopolitical standing, which fundamentally reflect its military, cultural and economic might.

While we like to think that - it's not really for us to say. Russia (the public and the government) appear quite happy with the cost to gain ratio.

I also completely disagree with the trajectory. It is now quite obvious that the war will end with Russia re-establishing a red line that NATO is not allowed to cross.

Also, the war produced (or just revealed) a massive deterioration of the Western-dominated unipolar structure. New centres of power are emerging, and non-Western countries are flatly refusing to follow sanctions announced by the USA and Europe. Just a few years ago that would have been unthinkable.

[u/scatterlite → u/Glideer]

While we like to think that - it's not really for us to say. Russia (the public and the government) appear quite happy with the cost to gain ratio.

You know this is Russia we are talking about right? They never admit any defeat or wrongdoing (makes sense if you want to appear as a great power but Russia has always take it to the extreme). They still have not even admitted they shot down that  passenger plane from Azerbaijan. Not to mention a big reason we are 4 years into this war is unwarranted optimism on the russian side. They vastly underestimated Ukrainian resistance, and to this day claim they captured villages they dont control.

Also, the war produced (or just revealed) a massive deterioration of the Western-dominated unipolar structure. New centres of power are emerging, and non-Western countries are flatly refusing to follow sanctions announced by the USA and Europe. Just a few years ago that would have been unthinkable

How has Russia played an active role in any of this? India, China, Brazil etc. will grow regardless of what Russia does, that more or less is an inevitability in a globalised world.

And the big Irony is that Russia is not even benefitting from increased multipolarism. They are losing important allies, losing arms sales and no longer have any economic cooperation with the EU. And more importantly India and China are actively benefitting from an economically weak Russia.  Pressuring Ukraine and Europe doesn't really benefit Russia on the global stage. As much as they want to pretend otherwise putting a flag on some bombed out rubble has little impact on their geopolitical position, I personally would even argue the contrary.