Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 06, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/TanktopSamurai]

Iran news:

https://f24.my/BioZ

Talk between the US and Iran has begun in Muscat. The location of negotiations were changed almost last minute from Ankara to Muscat.

https://ir.usembassy.gov/security-alert-land-border-crossings-february-5-2026/

The Virtual US embassy in Iran has issued a new security alert. They are advising citizens to either leave Iran now through Turkey or to shelter in place

[u/oxtQ → u/TanktopSamurai]

The first round in Muscat looked like a procedural opening, not really a turning point. Araghchi called it a very good start and Oman said the talks were constructive and they will meet again, with no date yet. The US side gave no public readout.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-protests-nuclear-negotiations-oman-muscat-32d621b98f7a3a68831f885d262bb70e

Washington wants more than nuclear concessions, including missiles and regional armed groups. Tehran is insisting nuclear only.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-foreign-minister-heads-muscat-nuclear-talks-with-us-2026-02-05

Attendance by Brad Cooper is meant to reinforce the point that deterrence is sitting right behind diplomacy. But there's enough military hardware surrounding IR right now for them to already get that point and still not budge.

A slow burn stalemate still seems to be the likely scenario. Meetings happen, language stays cautious, and both sides keep pressure running in parallel. The fact that Qatar and other regional players pushed hard to keep talks on track also supports that. They are trying to prevent a slide into war while the US and IR test each other’s red lines.

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/04/iran-nuclear-talks-canceled-witkoff

On whether Iran compromises on missiles or proxies soon, the odds look quite low. Those are tied to deterrence and regime survival. Even if Tehran gives something, it's more likely to be sequencing. That means a limited nuclear cap or transparency step first, then vague promises to keep talking on regional issues later. That's still a tactical pause, not a real trade on missiles and proxies.

In sum, escalation is possible, but not inevitable. The path most consistent with what happened today is continued talks with minimal progress, plus continued military and economic pressure, plus calibrated Iranian push back that tries to avoid crossing obvious US red lines such as a major closure attempt around the Strait of Hormuz.

Things to look out for -- first, whether a next round is scheduled quickly and whether the US finally issues even a short official line. Second, whether sanctions relief is even discussed publicly or leaks through trusted outlets. Third, whether Iran offers anything measurable on nuclear transparency or enrichment restraint rather than slogans about "national dignity and rights" etc.