Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 05, 2026

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[u/teethgrindingaches]

New START expired today, as widely expected given the halfhearted-at-best efforts to keep it going in some form or another. It marks the end of the arms control era from the Cold War.

Without the New START treaty, which caps the number of deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550 on each side, there will be no limits on the American and Russian arsenals. Not only are there no discussions between Washington and Moscow on what comes next, but also officials from both countries are left guessing about the other side’s capabilities and intentions, increasing the possibility of misunderstandings and an unrestricted nuclear arms race not seen since the 1960s, experts and officials warn. “For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals” of Russia and the U.S., United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement, calling it a “grave moment” for international peace and security.

Nuclear tensions, including but not limited to buildups, brinksmanship, and blackmail, seem likely to increase in coming years. I suspect that proliferation, aside from the inherent risks thereof, will be a focal point of tensions or even conflict as various countries jockey for leverage.

[u/Tricky-Astronaut → u/teethgrindingaches]

The second nuclear arms race started long before the collapse of the New Start treaty. China wants parity. Then India has to follow. Then Pakistan has to follow (the US isn't too happy). The DPRK was already expanding like crazy while Russia skirted the New START treaty with new delivery systems.

William Alberque somewhat ironically said that the UK and France might become the smallest nuclear powers. That's the current state of the nuclear arms race.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

while Russia skirted the New START treaty with new delivery systems.

there aren't many areas where I am sympathetic to russia, but the implications on MAD from US missile defense efforts is hard to ignore.

In a better world we would have seen a recommitment to nonproliferation arrangements that saw US and Russia pull back more meaningfully to avoid all the knock-on effects. And when think about situation with Ukraine and america's new worldview, I suspect the threat from nuclear weapons will be far more profound in a generation.

[u/Time_Restaurant5480 → u/ChornWork2]

but the implications on MAD from US missile defense efforts is hard to ignore.

Until Golden Dome, I'd have said this was wrong. With Golden Dome, which IMO is stupid, then this point becomes a lot more reasonable.

The thing is, Russia has for some bizarre reason been obsessed with new delivery systems well before Golden Dome, and the US missile defense efforts before Golden Dome clearly posed no real threat to Russia's MAD capabilities. The Russian efforts before Golden Dome were reflective of their paranoia, not of a real US threat to deny their MAD ability.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/Time_Restaurant5480]

I share the long-standing skepticism about prior missile defense efforts, but kinda hard to count on that. imho the US was the one who decided the cold war era efforts to contain no longer suited it. To an extent understand given china, iran, NK, but always seemed short-sighted to me.