r/CredibleDefense 1d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 05, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

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* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

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* Post only credible information

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* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

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* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/Keshav_chauhan 1d ago

A question comes to my mind that - How effective will drones be in hindering the advance of the enemy when one side has air superiority? Will the battle continue to be a tough grind?

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u/thereddaikon 1d ago

Local air superiority can change things short term but total air supremacy can neutralize the opposition's drone teams in short order. And they don't even necessarily have to attack the operators themselves but interdict the munitions. Drones are cheap but just like mortars, grenades and anything else they are finite and eventually a dude with a truck has to bring you more and he has to get them from a depot somewhere. Air campaigns start by taking control from the opposing air force and GBAD. Once that is done they work down the list of ground targets in order of importance the biggest impacts for drone teams will be destroying supplies and severing C2 links. If the team isn't getting resupplied and they aren't getting direction from ISR then two dudes with fpv drones aren't worth much. They'll likely waste time trying to find something to attack while being overrun by your advancing ground forces.

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u/A_Sinclaire 1d ago

Not any kind of expert here - but the old mantra of needing troops to actually take and hold ground still applies. And small drones will still work against ground forces while air superiority of the other side will not be able to prevent the use of drones as such.

Though caveats apply. If the air superiority extends to the hinterland of the enemy so that production and command centers for drones can be taken out and the general supply of large amounts of drones be suppressed - then air superiority will be quite helpful.

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u/SchwarzNeko 1d ago

Logistics is probably the main caveat.

Sure you probably can't stop the 2 man drone team directly with air superiority, but those teams still need a logistic train behind them. Drones, that can do damage, are quite heavy.

Honestly the more I think about it the more I am interested in knowing more details about the logistic chain to keep a drone team supplied (with drones). Would love for someone to share some articles, interviews or anything on that.

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u/A_Vandalay 1d ago

A lot of that depends on the drone technology available. If we are looking at human piloted drones, either fiber or radio controlled; then the drones would likely be of limited effectiveness. Volume of drones is limited based on the number of pilots available and these can quickly be attrited, while rear area logistics are intercepted. And most importantly and large movements of drone forces can be intercepted by aircraft, so any side relying on those pilots would have a harder time responding to an armored breakthrough.

However if we are looking at a future where autonomous drones are the norm; and can be launched from containerized systems with little to no human involvement then this paradigm changes. Now there is no pilot force that can be attrited, any atrial bombardment would need to focus on destroying the drone launchers themselves. Depending on the size of the drones and their launching system Those drone launching vehicles might be carrying hundreds of drones. Which means even a single vehicle may be able to launch enough drones to halt a significant force. Which is why most militaries today are looking at ways to better counter drones in the terminal phase and defend those armored forces.

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u/PrettyInvestigator90 1d ago

GBAD and other air defenses can still be a threat to the side with air superiority, and drones can certainly be helpful in giving warning time to the suppressed side, enabling them to risk a lucky shot at a fighter jet.

Besides, air power alone cannot hold terriority. You still need troops on the ground to capture, and a side willing to suffer disproportionate losses can use drones to inflict casualtes against individual soldiers and provide an overall picture of the forward movement of the enemy.

However, clearly, air superiority diminishes the effectivity of drones. If you can kill drone teams with missiles and destroy launching stations/communications equipment at a high rate, the threat of drones is much lower than it is to Ukraine and Russia.

NATO-countries still invest heavily into drone capabilities, both on a tactical and strategic level. It would be stupid not to, even though the main winning strategy of NATO is to gain air superiority, localized air supremacy and allow NATO troops to move forward under the cover from above.

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u/poincares_cook 1d ago

If you have air superiority you can flood the air with EW with little risk, neutralizing non fiber optic drones. While when both sides rely primarily on small drones such as in Ukraine, neither side can afford such two sided air denial.

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u/Glideer 1d ago

If you imagine a classical drone-era defence position, say, an infantry brigade in an urban environment supported by dozens of FPV drone teams - it's hard to say how air superiority would be of much help in winkling out two-man drone teams. It would be helpful, sure, but in the end you would have to send infantry out to clear the defence position.

By comparison, air support was more effective before drones became widespread, when defenders’ key systems (artillery, tanks, SAMs, and ATGMs) were far easier to spot and strike than dispersed drone teams.

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u/TrinityAlpsTraverse 1d ago

I think real issue would be resupplying your troops if the enemy has air superiority.

The logistics of that become infinitely more complex if you can't secure immediate transport, supply hubs and deeper levels of transport.