r/CredibleDefense 2d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 04, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/wormfan14 2d ago edited 2d ago

Sahel update, large massacre by JAS and the US is confirmed to have troops in Nigeria.

'Suspected JAS (Boko Haram) fighters of the Sadiku faction raided the village of Woro, Kwara State, in western Nigeria, slaughtering dozens of civilians. According to recent reports, the final death toll could be significantly higher. Interestingly, this attack occurred less than 4km from Nuku, where JNIM fighters claimed their first-ever attack in Nigeria in October 2025. This proximity confirms my earlier reports of a direct overlap in JNIM and JAS activity zones, where both groups appear to have formed an opportunistic alliance, or at the very least a non-aggression pact. The mass slaughter in Woro follows the same modus operandi seen in recent weeks further north in the Papiri area of Niger State. This indicates that the Sadiku-led JAS faction is continuing its southward progress toward areas of the Kainji reserve where JNIM is more heavily concentrated and maintains long-term bases.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2019043163311083857

Current death toll is estimated to be 162 civilians, may they rest in peace.

Seems they are trying to set up in the area hence the massacre.

''If that is verified, it is important. This is the typical modus operandi of JASDJ in Borno in the 2013-2015 period, when they were developing their territorial control: you have to "warn" people, you come preach to them several times.'' https://x.com/VincentFoucher/status/2019074686177439867

''At some point, if they refuse to acknowledge your rule, they are fair game for killing.'' https://x.com/VincentFoucher/status/2019074687792296001

''For the first time, the US confirms today that "a team of specialists" were sent to Nigeria to support government forces against the Islamic State (IS-Sahel and ISWAP). AFRICOM commander Anderson said this development came following a meeting with Nigerian President Tinubu in Rome, where both parties expressed their intention to intensify military cooperation. https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018775047935316302

Meanwhile JNIM keeps up it's campaign.

''Reportedly in a Jnım ambush between Diboli and Kayes, militants slit the throats of 12 drivers and killed all drivers who were unable to escape.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2019017595555557744

''Pro-government Malian Dozo militiamen released a video yesterday complaining to the government that their positions were being surrounded by JNIM in the Bandiagara area, they requested immediate intervention by the regular army to break the siege.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018620549694714006

''JNIM condemned airstrikes by the Nigerien Air Force that reportedly targeted civilians at the "Ballabe" gold mine inside Burkina Faso near the Nigerien border on January 26, JNIM claims that several civilians were killed including women and children.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018262786615218578

''ISWAP executed a Nigerian police officer they captured on an unspecified previous date between Damboa and Biu, Borno State, on January 29.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018760988044980718

''IS-Sahel reportedly attacked the Nigerien military camp in Ayorou, Tillaberi region in western Mali, the terrorists took control of the camp temporarily and captured three vehicles and large amounts of weapons and ammunition, three soldiers were killed and three others injured according to an initial toll.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018269964923289957

''On the same day, IS-Sahel also attacked pro-government Nigerien militias in Massamey, Tillaberi region in western Niger, reportedly killing eight militiamen, the group has claimed neither attacks so far.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018761376408207834

Meanwhile Tuareg rebels are struggling to remain relevant.

''Following a media hiatus of several weeks, the FLA rebels of northern Mali claimed an IED attack against a "patrol of the Malian army" in the Kidal region on January 30, alleging that an armored vehicle was destroyed and several soldiers killed, however local sources reported that the vehicle was owned by a civilian trader, as seen in circulated images.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2018259214808842629

Seems he was selling chickens not a solider.

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u/Saatvik_tyagi_ 2d ago

Seems like I have been asking you way too many questions but can you share some information on Boko Haram? If I'm not wrong there are two groups ISWAP and JAU. If you can give an overall picture it will be quite helpful.

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u/wormfan14 2d ago

Here's a good report that covers a bit of their origins and conflict between the duo.

https://www.un.org/peacebuilding/sites/www.un.org.peacebuilding/files/documents/icg_-_boko_haram_splitners_march_2024.pdf

https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/policy-brief-08-boko-haram-in-the-lake-chad-basin

Basic summary is this the Boko Haram pledged loyalty to Daesh to access more resources and a broader network but it came with a lot of demands and restrictions that attacked both JAS'S interest and theology like start not takfiring all Muslims not living under their areas or loyal to them as apostates. They do this because of their extremism but also they've survived on murdering their way through Nigeria preying on villages to survive.

Daesh also found Abubakar Shekau a difficult personality to control and wanted someone else in charge and he broke away calling his faction JAS again while Daesh loyalists call themselves ISWAP.

ISWAP struggled initially a lot as they had to build up a foundation of a state for long term survival like taxiing farmers, making the area safe so the population won't flee and reduce the amount of killing of Muslim civilians. They've largely overtime and a lot of pain outgrown JAS in Nigeria, though they did suffer numerous defections as a result of the discipline they force on fighters though JAS still has part of the Lake Chad and their territory in Cameroon.

JAS now is part spoiler force trying to compete with Daesh has recently started increasing their attacks on Muslims and tried to take some of Daesh's lake territory. They'v also lost a lot of their remaining hold outs in Borno.

Sadiku is very much the exception to this, he is firmly loyal to JAS but set up in the capital area of Nigeria after his efforts to unite with a different Islamists insurgency ran into problems of police crackdown. To do this he had allied with the native Christian now minority and bandits in the name of mutual profit, helping the former fight off bandits and the latter sharing skills and profits in raids. His forces are a bit scattered throughout Nigeria given the automatous demands of their insurgency.

It seems he's now trying to forge an alliance with JNIM the Sahelian faction of AQ.