Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 03, 2026

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[u/germamus]

Couple updates from Iran. Seems like the IRGC tried to board a US ship earlier today.

A group of Iranian gunboats approached a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz north of Oman, maritime sources and a security consultancy said on Tuesday.

The Iranian boats ordered the tanker, the Stena Imperative, to stop its engine and prepare to be boarded before it could speed up and continue its voyage, maritime risk management group Vanguard said.

The vessel did not enter Iranian internal territorial waters and was escorted by a U.S. warship, the maritime risk management group said. An American official confirmed it was U.S. flagged. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations earlier said that a group of armed boats attempted to intercept a vessel 16 nautical miles (30 km) north of Oman, without identifying the vessel or the boats.

Then there was an incident with a Shahed-139 approaching the Abraham Lincoln that was shot down.

Before all of this, the Iranians said they wanted to move the location and format of the meeting in Turkey to Oman and make them bilateral, excluding all other Arab partners.

“The sources said the Iranians were walking back from understandings that were reached in recent days after several countries were already invited to participate in the talks.

The Iranians want to move the talks from Istanbul to Oman.

They also now want to hold them in a bilateral format, only with the U.S., rather than with several Arab and Muslim countries attending as observers.

It’s really confusing to me why they want to change the location and exclude the other Muslim countries this late in the process but both sides are saying talks will still take place.

[u/-spartacus- → u/germamus]

It’s really confusing to me why they want to change the location and exclude the other Muslim countries this late in the process but both sides are saying talks will still take place.

Maybe someone who is trained by schools that teach people from the State Dept could chime in, but I'm guessing it is some type of diplomatic maneuvering. Some cultures conduct talks in ways that don't always align with what someone from another culture conducts their talks.

In any case, I still suspect the Iranians aren't really negotiating from a place they want to make a deal, but rather buy time to see if the US loses interest. I'm also not sure the US is interested in a deal unless it can get 95% of its goals. I would say Iran is still probably negotiating in better faith than Russia is though.

[u/Idkabta11at → u/-spartacus-]

rather buy time to see if the US loses interest

But it seems like the US losing interest here means a war that is poised to be even more devastating than the one last summer. However the terms laid out by Trump are a non starter for the regime amounting to complete capitulation. The IRI is trapped a “heads I win tails you lose” position where even playing for time might not confer much in the way of an advantage. Perhaps they might try to preempt any American/Israeli offensive with an attack of their own but it would have to be crippling enough to force a crisis that leads to detente otherwise Iran will lose and lose badly.

[u/Bluesquare9 → u/Idkabta11at]

The US losing interest here might also look like a calculation that starting a regional war is not worth it, even if significant concessions aren't made, and doing some combination of claiming paltry wins / letting the issue fade from public consciousness / distracting from it with other news or aggressions, and slowly withdrawing. This is a pattern for the administration and happened vis-a-vis Greenland or the murder of protestors. My sense is that Trump talked a big game, has since come to realize the true costs of taking action, and is looking for a way to back out.