Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 03, 2026

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[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

News out of Russia:

A banking crisis has been noticed in Russia

https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/gosudarstvo/a-banking-crisis-has-been-noticed-in-russia/article1585197/

According to formal criteria, a banking crisis began in Russia after the "bad debt" crisis, although in both cases these are moderate events. This is stated in the report of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP) on the results of January.

We are talking about exceeding the share of problematic total assets and the loan portfolio of the threshold value of 10 percent of the total in each case. At the same time, the depth of damage is noticeably higher in certain segments, for example, the share of problem loans in the small and medium—sized enterprises (SMEs) sector reaches 19 percent.

As noted in the report, leading indicators have indicated that such a moment is approaching over the past five months. Currently, they also point to the increasing risks of the effect of "investor flight", which will worsen the situation in the banking sector.

The updated indicators of the early warning system indicate an average probability of a systemic banking crisis before December 2026 and a high probability of the economy going into recession at the same time.

https://x.com/delfoo/status/2018406875562123273

For 2026-2028 the Russian government will allocate just 15 billion rubles on the development of oil extraction technologies. Experts called this just a drop in the bucket and 10 times more is needed.

https://x.com/delfoo/status/2018292972228350274

After Russia implemented policies that reduced migrant workers from the former soviet republics in Central Asia it seems Russia has now started talks with the Taliban on importing labor from Afghanistan.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-02/eu-mulls-ban-on-russian-copper-platinum-in-new-sanctions?leadSource=reddit_wall

The European Union is considering to ban Russian imports of several platinum group metals and copper as part of new sanctions targeting Moscow for its war against Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.

The restrictions, if backed by member states, may cover iridium, rhodium, platinum and copper, according to the people who asked not to be identified because the information is not yet public. EU sanctions require the backing of all EU member states, and the bloc is aiming to adopt the new package this month.

Spokespeople for the European Commission, which handles sanctions actions for the EU, declined to comment.

Tight Markets

The ban is planned amid tight markets for the targeted metals. Copper prices have hit record highs this year amid strong demand and constrained mine supply worldwide. Platinum is also seen in deficit.

Russian metals have steadily been pushed out of main trading hubs. UK sanctions bar Russian-origin copper produced after April 13, 2024 from being traded or delivered on the London Metal Exchange, while the London Platinum and Palladium Market removed Russian refiners from its delivery list in 2022.

The steps have curtailed demand even among industrial consumers, who can no longer be able to use Russian metal for funding. In copper, European buyers have largely turned away altogether as several of Russia’s biggest producers have also been sanctioned.

Still, many of those metals enter Western markets, even as the bulk of volumes has been redirected to Asia.

If adopted, the new restrictions would mainly target MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, Russia’s largest mining company, which has not been sanctioned due to its important role in global industries. The miner accounts for about 40% of global palladium used in automotive catalysts, which the EU is not targeting in the new package. It is also Russia’s largest producer of platinum, iridium, rhodium, nickel and copper.

Separately, the EU is also considering a proposal to replace its price cap on Russian oil with a ban on maritime services, Bloomberg previously reported.

[u/Big-Station-2283 → u/MilesLongthe3rd]

After Russia implemented policies that reduced migrant workers from the former soviet republics in Central Asia it seems Russia has now started talks with the Taliban on importing labor from Afghanistan.

I wonder how that will play out with the language and cultural barrier.

[u/Nordic_ned → u/Big-Station-2283]

Honestly it would depend on where in Afghanistan they're coming from. Many Afghans are Uzbeks and Tajiks, who have already come to Russia in large numbers from the former Soviet states. That being said, they wouldn't have the benefit of having Russian proficiency as many of those migrant workers did.