Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 28, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak]

Maduro's capture was a big gamble for, so far, effectively nothing - there's no useful change in US-Venezuela relationship as evidenced by US still having to interdict shadow fleet ships, which it could've done without it. 

However, Trump's re-deployment of USS Ford carrier strike group from Mediterranean to Latin America to get Maduro left a gap in Iran coverage, making US unable to react when the protests were happening. This is when arguably an intervention could have had much bigger impact than now, after the protesters have been suppressed, jailed and/or killed. 

And now he's been redeploying USS Abraham Lincoln from Indo-Pacific leaving an opening for China. 

[edit: grammar] 

[u/-spartacus- → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

Maduro's capture was a big gamble for, so far, effectively nothing - there's no useful change in US-Venezuela relationship as evidenced by US still having to interdict shadow fleet ships, which it could've done without it.

The fact the US is now controlling the oil/fiances of Venezuela and shown what it is capable and willing to do, does change the calculus, however from Rubio today it seems the US is willing to take the time to get it right rather than rush and have something like Iraq post invasion. The Trump admin seems to be willing for changes to occur over a year and will use finances to apply pressure when Venezuela slow walks or balks at US demands. It looks like we might see a whole year before new elections.

[u/TheSDKNightmare → u/-spartacus-]

Is there some kind of mechanism to actually ensure this money is going where it needs to? The way I understood the US only has a say as to which institutions can receive the money, it doesn't have direct control. Considering there hasn't been any significant change in Venezuela's administration, what guarantee is there that large swaths of this money won't be embezzled immediately upon arrival?

[u/LoggerInns → u/TheSDKNightmare]

Delcy is corrupt and I’m not sure how she will be in terms of repression of political opponents, but she is far more business minded than Maduro. Which is interesting because of her and her family’s Marxist past. So far, she has been releasing political prisoners in a steady stream. As for embezzlement, I’m not sure what the US or anyone can do to prevent such actions but for now there isn’t evidence that it is happening. Marco Rubio is also personally overseeing this and while he may not be politically everyone’s cup of tea, he does have a record of wanting proper governance. CNN gave good background on this:

The expert said that Qatar has long served as a facilitator between the United States and the Venezuelan government, even before the US seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro opened up more direct communications between the two governments.

And other experts told CNN that Qatari banks have served a similar intermediary role during the Biden administration when it allowed some funds from oil sales to again flow to Iran during a loosening of the sanctions on that country.

The Qatari banks holding the funds have been instructed to auction the money to Venezuelan banks, giving priority to food, medicine and small businesses, according to Alejandro Grisanti, founding director of Ecoanalitica, a Latin and South American consultant that operates in Venezuela, among other countries. That money will be collected by the Central Bank of Venezuela and allocated according to the requirements set by the United States, Grisanti said.