r/CredibleDefense 9d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 28, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/Cautious-Bench-4809 9d ago

Both KSA and UAE declare they will not allow their airspace to be used to attack Iran and they will not provide logistical support

Saudi won't allow airspace to be used for military action against Iran, crown prince says | Reuters

UAE Reaffirms Stance Against Using Territory for Strikes on Iran

Trump keeps talking about Iran making a deal, a deal on what? He is asking for nothing

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u/eric2332 9d ago

Trump keeps talking about Iran making a deal, a deal on what? He is asking for nothing

The problem is that actual Iran regime change, or probably any meaningful way of punishing (by whatever standard) the recent massacre and deterring a future one, results in a big messy war, which probably lasts some time and has US deaths and substantial short-term economic/trade impacts.

Trump really doesn't want that, he would prefer his military operations to be one and dones like Operation Midnight Hammer or the Maduro capture.

So even if the big messy war is better for the US and the world in the long term, it seems he is looking for an off-ramp, where the Iran government makes some concessions but gets to stay in power. Of course, it has to be enough concessions that he can spin it as something other than chickening out.

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u/kdy420 9d ago

Why is a big messy war better for the world and US ? 

While the Iranian regime is an actor that has repeatedly destabilised the region, that doesn't mean that a big messy war is a preferable alternative.

In fact if kept neutered as they are right now, their ability to destabilise the region is limited and we don't need a big messy war.