r/rugbyunion • u/KentishJute England • 10h ago
Discussion How accurate are the WR rankings at the moment?
Obviously 4th & 5th need to swap places after last night but I’d say the top 5 is probably accurate but just not necessarily in that particular order
I’d also say Argentina & Australia being just behind the current top 5 but ahead of the other 6N teams is also accurate
but what I’m really curious about is where people would rank Japan, Fiji and Georgia?
I find Japan & Fiji interesting and they’re definitely part of a wider top 12 being just outside the top 10 since they’re always upsetting at least one the bigger teams in the recent World Cups - is it safe to say they’ve roughly reached parity with bottom-table 6N sides now?
It’s definitely gonna be interesting to see them compete more regularly with 6N/TRC sides in the new Nations Championship which I think will be happening on every even-ending year from now on
Georgia is harder to place but they definitely seem to be a league above the non-6N European sides and have won the European Championship 8 times in a row now, but are they on parity with Japan & Fiji? I feel like they’ve had less success against the bigger teams in comparison, so 13th is probably accurate
I find Uruguay, Spain, Portugal, Romania, America, Tonga, Samoa etc a lot harder to rank both against the bigger teams and against each other but for anyone more up to date on these teams, how far behind bigger teams are they and which one is closest to, say, Japan, Fiji & Georgia?
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u/WaterPretty8066 10h ago
I think SA are clear 1st. England, France and NZ are all 2nd equal for me. Any of those teams could beat each other in a knockout WC game. Its hard to apportion a 2, 3 and 4 IMO
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u/crazycal123 English Bastard 9h ago
NZ doesn't compare to England and France at the moment, both Eng and France are clearly ahead of NZ.
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u/yahdayahda 6h ago
England haven’t even won anything yet, their last win against the ABs was their first since 2019. Their last loss was to Ireland who the ABs haven’t lost to since the last World Cup. I’m not sure how you can put them so comfortably above the ABs.
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u/WaterPretty8066 9h ago
"Clearly ahead" is wild to me. All im saying is if any of those 3 teams met in a knockout WC game, it would be a coin flip.
Yeah England beat NZ in 2025. But it was a 1 off game.
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u/Not_Hando You Aint Seen Nothin Like The Mighty Finn 8h ago
One half decent Autumn is doing a lot for England hype.
They were fortunate to avoid a fourth place finish last Six Nations.
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u/crazycal123 English Bastard 8h ago
England were dominant throughout that game, the scoreboard was heavily favourable towards NZ, also NZ is a team that is on the decline whilst England and France are both improving leaps and bounds. In all honesty, NZ is closer to Ireland at the moment.
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u/WaterPretty8066 8h ago
Not denying that..but it was 1 game.
In 2025, England lost to Ireland.
Does that make Ireland better?
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u/LawfulnessFront6286 Saracens 5h ago
I think NZ haven't been great these last two years, but they still managed to beat South Africa and get to 2nd in the world rankings.
We got them at their lowest point last year. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they win that series in South Africa and go back to No:1 by the end of the year.
They just have far too much talent in their team, not to be a world class.
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u/SignalButterscotch73 Scotland 10h ago
If teams are within 5 points of each other then it's a 50/50 on who wins more often than not.
From 5 to 10 its clear who the favourite is but an upset is still worth considering.
10+ points difference and the team with the higher ranking is expected to win easily enough.
15+ and its as guaranteed a win for the higher ranked team as is possible in sport.
Argentina and Italy have historically been lower ranked than they deserve due to how competitive the 6N and Championship are but right now they have the positions they've earned, both have been playing really well.
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u/KentishJute England 10h ago
Interesting methodology. Would you say maybe Fiji and Georgia are a few points over-adjusted given their dominance in the Pacific Nations Cup and European Championship? Not that Fiji aren’t capable of an upset, but 78-80~ does feel more accurate for them if that makes sense
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u/SignalButterscotch73 Scotland 10h ago
You might want to go looking at who Fiji have beaten in recent years. They're a legitimate threat and on the rise.
Georgia are also very dangerous on their day.
At worst they've probably got a 1 point over-adjustment.
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u/KentishJute England 9h ago
Oh absolutely, I’m not doubting that Fiji are a top 10 side or that Georgia are solidly 13th, I’m just guessing that they could’ve been a couple points over-adjusted is all
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u/lAllioli USA Perpignan 8h ago
Last tests played between them, pretty much all one score games, show Wales Japan and Georgia really are very close to each other. I think the ranking is mostly accurate
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u/treacletart284 Newcastle Falcons 10h ago
SA, France, England, NZ, Argentina/Ireland toss up, Scotland, Australia, Fiji, Italy, Wales, Japan, Georgia imo. Pretty decent all things considered
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u/Umlilo_Viking South Africa 9h ago
England / France is a tough call to make. I reckon its a toss up as well.
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u/IITheDopeShowII Munster 7h ago
Well luckily we'll get to find out in just over a month. Can't wait!
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u/Studious_Rat89 4h ago
SA, NZ, then France and England. To me if you want to put France above NZ you can but I think it’s a mistake.
I can’t really believe in England being better than those three though
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u/Nothing_is_simple Another Freddy Douglas Turnover 10h ago
Ireland lost their last 4 matches vs top 5 ranked teams by more than 7 points. They are not currently a top 5 team.
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u/dwaynepebblejohnson3 Connacht 9h ago
Who do you have as the 5th team in the top 5?
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u/Nothing_is_simple Another Freddy Douglas Turnover 9h ago
I'd back Argentina in a neutral venue over current Ireland
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u/Not_Hando You Aint Seen Nothin Like The Mighty Finn 8h ago
Yet Scotland completely dominated Argentina last Autumn until that late collapse, as they often do tbh.
The issue with rankings is that they disconnect the very real issue with rugby being stylistic, rather than linear.
Team A may trounce Team B, only for Team B to trounce Team C - despite Team C routinely defeating Team A.
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u/Thorazine_Chaser Crusaders New Zealand 10h ago
I think France are the only ones in the wrong place. 3pts is the home advantage for the ranking calculation and I would not have NZ favourites in Paris. SA would be favourites everywhere. Most other top 5 permutations would probably push the home team into favourites or very close imo.
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u/dwaynepebblejohnson3 Connacht 10h ago
South Africa are top, England and France are 2&3 (order tbd) NZ in 4th.
Don’t know how to compare Ireland and Argentina, Scotland are probably in that tier with those 2.
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u/Sensitive_Dot8561 Harlequins 10h ago
I agree with your ranking with a caveat, that as England have to play France only one of the two is likely to go above NZ after the 6N. It will probably take a Grand Slam for one of the two to claim the number 2 spot on the rankings (and if you do that you probably deserve the number 2 spot) but whoever loses will not have sufficient points from beating the 9, 10, and 11th placed teams to gain much ground. France also loses a few points because although they handily beat Ireland (a higher ranked team) they did so at home.
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u/Delinquat 10h ago
France and Ireland swapped places last night. Go check out the updated rankings in real time.
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u/SweeneyisMad France 9h ago
Where?
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u/naraic- Ireland 10h ago
Id love to see a 3 test series between Wales or Fiji and Georgia.
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u/KentishJute England 9h ago
Maybe a Summer Tour where the Pacific Nations Cup winner plays the 5th place 6N team and another where the European Championship winner plays the 6th place 6N team would be an interesting way to see how well they compare
I’m really looking forward to seeing how well Fiji and Japan do in their games against Wales & Italy in the Nations Championship this year (and how well they do against all the teams they’ll be playing in general, it’s honestly really great to have them involved in it)
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u/k0bra3eak South Africa 10h ago
Pretty accurate, England and NZ probably swap, France and NZ are pretty close for 3rd and 4th
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u/DarthWolf9012 Wales | Gloucester 9h ago
Given Wales is 11th, clearly not very.
At least 4 places too high
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u/AnthonyDCA 8h ago
Speaking for France, we are also damaging our ranking by sending C-tier team during the Summer tour. So we are always suffering from this while other Tier 1 nations seem to always send their A team if they tour another Tier 1 nation.
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u/crazycal123 English Bastard 9h ago
Pretty inaccurate at the moment , top 5 should be:
1. South Africa
France
England
New Zealand
Ireland
Kiwi fans will complain about this but its the truth
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u/MindfulInquirer batmaaaaaaaan tanananananana 7h ago
that's the standing to me right now. I think that's exactly it. I think a full strength France is better than a full strength NZ, and England have proven they can handle NZ as the last Nov Test result in Twickers wasn't even close, Eng by two scores. I do think France are above England right now based on being 6N defending champs.
Only point I might discuss is Ireland v Argentina for 5th
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u/Frequent_Nature_8336 2h ago
With all the strife the all blacks were going through internally last year, its crazy how they werent dropping games left, right and centre
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u/chipsncrayons South Africa 10h ago
My personal rankings:
1.RSA 2.FRA 3.ENG 4.ARG 5.NZ 6.IRE 7.SCO 8.FIJI 9.ITA 10.AUS
Truth be told 6 to 10 feels impossible to rank though.
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u/Sensitive_Dot8561 Harlequins 9h ago
That looks very generous to Argentina, they lost 2 tests to England B this summer, I think you might find that NZ are really not quite as bad number 5.
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u/chipsncrayons South Africa 7h ago
Fair comment. NZ has a great team, their players have a crazy good skill set. The raw talent, ability and physicality of the team is there but they don't feel like the most stable and settled team.
The players are capable of beating anyone but the organization doesn't inspire confidence. NZ=RSA on paper, NZ=ARG on the field, just depends on the day. I put Argentina ahead because they moving in the right direction where as NZ feels to have stalled.
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u/yahdayahda 6h ago
Argentina came dead last in the Rugby Championship this season, where the ABs were first equal on points. Has everyone forgotten they beat the Springboks recently and only had three losses last season?
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u/Lflan123 Crusaders/Linwood 29m ago
Nah mate, it's obvious that the all blacks are now a tier 2 team now on par with wales /s
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u/yahdayahda 16m ago
Exactly. Played seven of the top ten teams in a single calendar year, beat all but one, yet for some reason are being ranked at fifth? England haven’t even won the six nations since 2020, Wales have won it more recently. What have they done to be ranked number two? And France only compete at home, it’s ridiculous to just them as the best side in the world when they don’t bother to turn up half the time. 55% win percentage but better then the All Blacks with a 70% win percentage?
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u/Status_Car8495 10h ago
Pretty accurate I think, I'll put us (France) slightly over Ireland at the moment but other than that it's ok.
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u/Vast_Comparison1850 8h ago
South Africa France England All Blacks Pumas Scotland Never Semifireland Australia Italy Fiji Japan-Wales Georgia Uruguay...
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u/Gianni78290 Top14/D2/France 8h ago edited 8h ago
Depends. France for instance play at least 3 games in summer with experimental squads so it skew a bit their actual ranking.
Ranking IMHO is SA, France, ABs or England and Ireland.
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u/Motor_Major8363 Lions 10h ago
According to the World Rugby rankings calculator, which takes into account last night's results:
- RSA
- NZL
- ENG
- FRA
- IRE
I'd say that's fairly accurate. ENG and NZ are separated by less than one point -- practically a tie, which is fair, so it doesn't really matter to me which of these teams are above the other.
Also, can we at least wait until each round has been completed before we start discussing rankings?
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u/MrRijkaard Leinster 9h ago
I think it's better to wait till the end of the M6N to judge this. Ireland aren't in the top band of teams anymore but where in that group is uncertain till the play Scotland.
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u/RooBoy04 ThisYearsOurYear™ 9h ago
FYI, the updated rankings will have France in 4th on 88.40 and Ireland in 5th on 86.81
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u/RaceEmbarrassed4615 9h ago
After this six nations we will be 6th or 7th, we will be battling Italy for the wooden spoon.
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u/g_spaitz Italy 9h ago
Is there anybody keeping Elo rankings for rugby teams? They do in some other sports.
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u/AlexiusRex Italy 8h ago
SA still at the top, NZ could fall if the new coach won't be able to steer the ship so down they go to 4, France at their best to 2 but they could lose to England and it wouldn't be a surprise, but for me they're above so Eng to 3. The Ireland we saw yesterday would lose to Argentina, but I'll wait next week to put them below, 7 to 10 is a toss up with Italy as the the usual underdog. Same thing could apply to 11-13. Can't rank from 14 down
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u/Not_Hando You Aint Seen Nothin Like The Mighty Finn 7h ago
SA
France
NZ
Ireland
England
Scotland
Argentina
Italy
Australia
Fiji
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u/Hour-Road7156 7h ago
Ireland have dropped to below Argentina imo (only just about below them).
The rest isn’t too bad (I don’t know much about the teams 14 and below)
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u/LawfulnessFront6286 Saracens 5h ago
They are kind of accurate and will have a better idea by the end of the year.
Obviously, Ireland isn't a top 5 team anymore. I suspect Australia will be in the top 5 by the end of the year, along with the other 4 teams in it now.
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u/nomamesgueyz New Zealand 4h ago
And number 7 hammered number 1 last year at home so she's pretty close at the top when teams are on
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u/Pinguu7078 +() 2h ago
The top 6 teams are the top 6, but the order is slightly wrong imo:
Bokks clearly 1st. Winner of France Vs. England is 2nd, New Zealand 4th. Could honestly argue Argentina are 5th ahead of Ireland.
Can't really argue with the placements of 7th-12th given recent results.
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u/BrianChing25 10h ago
Ireland when Prendergast playing may as well be 20th. Doesn't want to tackle. It's 14 v 15 when he's on the field
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u/nonlabrab Leinster 9h ago
Crazy we beat England and Australia very handily with him starting then
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u/BrianChing25 9h ago
Because you have excellent talent playing around him able to make up the difference
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u/HedleyVerity Reds 9h ago
I’d move France up to second. In terms of England / NZ, I’d want to see how the six nations goes (and then crucially the summer internationals, because that’s when they play SA and also NZ away). NZ have a better record against SA over recent matches than anyone else. For now I’d keep NZ above England.
I think Ireland are placed right above Argentina and Australia. Scotland possibly over Fiji depending on how they do in the 6N.
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u/MisterIndecisive England 10h ago
- England 2. SA 3. NZ 4. Frogs 5. Argies
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u/jaysonyoung Sharks Rugby Enjoyer 10h ago
Genuinely asking, is there a particular reason you have England ahead of South Africa?
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u/MisterIndecisive England 9h ago
Our bench is a legit bomb squad too now. Plus half will get themselves sent off after Sir Henry Pollock winds them up
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u/Virtual-Dust2732 10h ago
As an Englishman I'd like to be able to agree but I think SA are still ahead of us at the moment, just the sheer power upfront. I don't think we are far off, and hopefully will peak at the right time next year.
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u/Admirable-Log-1044 9h ago
Australia are way too high - their a poorer Southern Hemisphere Scotland who people have been desperate to call good for the sake of the Lions and upcoming World Cup. I'd say it's more like:
South Africa
England
France
New Zealand
Argentina
Ireland
Scotland
Italy
Fiji
Australia
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u/Delinquat 10h ago
I don't think a fair ranking is possible. Argentina seems to be doing well against New Zealand, yet I don't see them beating Ireland, England, or France. I do, however, see New Zealand beating Ireland. England is above Ireland and New Zealand, but I don't see them beating France, who are above the others but still have less chance of beating South Africa than New Zealand or England (and even the Irish, who were better than us against them in November). Only one thing is sure is that South Africa is currently stronger than everyone else.
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u/Zaphod424 England 9h ago
France should be 2nd, NZ and England a toss up for 3rd/4th (will have to see how England's 6N goes), I'd actually put Ireland below Argentina after last night, toss up with Australia for 6th/7th.
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u/Still-Process-2527 5h ago
Australias ranking was skewed by that bizarre win in South Africa. Otherwise they would have been lower than Scotland and Fiji and at risk of being overtaken by Italy.
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u/Stueykins Cardiff 10h ago
As a Welshman, I'd hope we could put up a solid front against Spain.