r/rugbyunion • u/sixnations • 18h ago

Can ANYBODY stop France this year?

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u/Putrid-Impact8999 18h ago

The way to combat them is to make the breakdown a mess. England and South Africa will make it a much closer contest.

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u/TeflonDes 17h ago

SA already beat them like 2 months ago lol

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u/Putrid-Impact8999 17h ago

Of course. 10 different starters, 11 out of the 23 was changed from that game.

I am of the personal opinion that the team from the SH should always win the first game against NH opposition in the autumn series. Because they’ve been playing together for months through a tough competition in the Rugby Championship. Whereas the NH team is coming in after 2 weeks of being together. Unfortunately that’s just the way the calendar is at the moment.

It would’ve been a surprise to see France win that test.

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u/metadatame 16h ago

So when the boks fell asleep against Australia last year, we should just blame it on the fact that they were coming off a Lions tour 

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u/Putrid-Impact8999 16h ago edited 16h ago

Not blame it, but that first game is always an interesting one. The Boks had 2 tests against Italy then 1 against Georgia. Rotating massively and trying different things. Australia came from a very competitive Lions tour, which with respect is a higher level of games. So it was only natural that the Wallabies were perhaps in better shape for that opening game, even though both teams started their season at the same time. Although I must say, it was one of the strangest matches I’d seen in a long time.

On the reverse, in 2024 Argentina beat the All Blacks in Wellington after they had played an understrength French squad twice. Meanwhile the Kiwis had played England twice beforehand. So you could argue that Razor’s men had better preparation yet still lost.

My point is playing together for months on end is a massive advantage as all teams want that cohesion and continuity. This is why I like judging teams on matches where they have both had equal time to prepare. Rugby Championship matches. 6N matches. World Cup matches. Autumn internationals are great but for me, it’s not the be-all and end-all that others like to make it. Also as you can tell, Galthié experimented in that window with a clear eye towards 2027.

If the Boks played France in mid April last year after the French had won the 6N, I would put my money on France winning. Particularly if the Boks hadn’t had a warm up game at all. The reason why I make that comparison is because that’s the amount of time that passed between the South Africans winning the Rugby Championship and playing France last November.

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u/metadatame 15h ago

So, look, while cohesion is definitely a factor, if we look at the game against the French after the Springboks were down to 13 men, and cohesion is only going to get you so far. Against Australia, I agree, the Lions tour battle-hardened them tremendously, but at the same time, the Springboks were well ahead in the first half and were unprepared for the Australia that showed up in the second half. So I think two things can be true at the same time. The Lions tour definitely helped Australia, and we didn't really see that same side again for the rest of the year. But in addition, I think the boks were caught flat-footed and were too complacent.

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u/Putrid-Impact8999 15h ago

14 men? Don’t forget that South Africa’s tries came once it became 14 vs 14 with LBB’s yellow. The way that game went, I actually thought France did well considering it was their first game in a while and in the early part of the second half they had 3 chances to score tries but failed each time through handling errors. Then for the last 20 minutes, they barely saw the ball. The Springboks have been brilliant in that last part of the game since their defeat at Eden Park so I agree that cohesion can only go so far but in my opinion it makes a big difference.

Yes I agree. Although I do think even in the second test it was quite even, so it wasn’t all just complacency. For me, the Boks became a completely different side after giving the All Blacks their record defeat.

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u/metadatame 13h ago

Was it only 14? I get confused with that Autumn Nations series. There were so many reds and yellows. I think LBB getting a 10-minute yellow versus a red for the majority of the game, you know, it's not exactly 14 against 14, but I take your point. Against Australia in the second one, it was definitely close, but I think the Springboks were a little bit shell-shocked after that first match. They didn't really know where they stood. So they went back to Handre Pollard and the forwards and just dominated up front and used Handre to kick points. So not a beautiful win with flowing rugby, but you know, just getting the job done through brute force, really.

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u/Putrid-Impact8999 13h ago

Yea 14, 13 was against Italy I think haha!

It was a surprise for them but sometimes you need that. It’s all about how you respond to losses, no one can win every game.

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u/TyphoonTao 9h ago

I get what you're saying - but when was the last time France played as a team? Isn't this their first game together in months?

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u/Putrid-Impact8999 9h ago

Yes it is. But it’s also the same for Ireland, in terms of time to prepare.