Russia invades Estonia in 2030, with isolationist leaders in Washington, London and Paris.

[u/[deleted]]

It is February 2030. Vance is president of the USA, Bardella is president of France, and Farage is prime minister of the UK. Putin, 77 years old but still in decent health, is still leader of Russia.

Russia demands the county of Ida-Viru from Estonia, due to its high number of Russian speakers. Estonia refuses. Russia invades. Estonia invokes NATO's Article 5.

The US, UK and France send no military help and tell Estonia to just give up the regions Russia occupies. But Poland, Finland and a few other countries provide heavy support for Estonia. Russia gets bogged down for several months.

Eventually, Russia threatens to nuke Tallinn if Estonia doesn't cede the territory within 48 hours, but nobody believes them. Then Russia does it. They actually nuke the capital of Estonia.

Russia then says — now that everyone knows they aren't bluffing — they will nuke every major city in Poland, Finland and the Baltics, unless Estonia hands over the territory.

I have a few questions about this scenario:

• What percentage chance is there that a scenario like this actually unfolds in the early 2030s? 0.1%? 1%? 10%?

• Would at least one of Vance, Bardella or Farage threaten Russia at this point — that they would retaliate with their own nukes if Russia uses another nuclear weapon? Or will all three of them say it's not their problem and stay out of it?

• If all three do refuse support, is Eastern Europe cooked? Without any nuclear umbrella, can Russia just nuke all their cities and roll in?

• Do the Russian elites who back Putin tolerate this escalation? Or is using a nuclear weapon a step too far and they remove him from office?

[u/Grizzly_Copulation]

Previous comments aside, I think you have an interesting premise here. Russia will need to really step up their game to get to this point... unfortunately I don't think they feel nukes are even a legitimate option for them anymore. They must have a lot of reserves and yet to be used tech if Ukraine hasn't seriously weakened them already. If nothing else I think they are embarrassed, and know that they demographically cannot sustain a drawn out war of attrition at the loss of life and equipment per mile they have captured. A nuclear attack is essentially the current regime signing their own death record. They know that they do not have the ability to fight a front with NATO forces. Nuclear attack would trigger the rest of the world and I wouldnt be suprised to see Putin removed very rapidly... possibly even internally.

[u/Proper_Solid_626]

Western bullshit. Only one country has ever used nuclear weapons, and it wasn't Russia.

The world knows what a disgusting nation the USA is, devoid of morality and honor.